Your move...
Quick little post. This is a question to you, whoever is reading this.
Imagine yourself in my shoes here - what would your move be? How would you play this hand? I ask this because I truly have no answer. I have no idea how to play this hand the way that the cards came.
The game is a $55 buy-in, turbo sit&go on Poker Stars.
It is about 20 hands into the tournament, and you have no real read on your opponent (DokterD). He doubled up early with AA vs KK preflop, which really doesn't tell you much. The starting chips are:
Seat 6: RikkiDee (1450 in chips)
Seat 7: DokterD (3990 in chips)
There are 6 other players still alive in the tournament, but they arn't involved in the hand.
You are in the SB, he is the BB, it is folded to you.
RikkiDee: posts small blind 50
DokterD: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Ad As]
You are dealt aces, a hand that makes you or breaks you. Fortunately, a raise in this position is generally considered a stealing raise, so I think it is mandatory to raise here. While limping is obvioulsy an option, it isn't what I did so lets play along.
RikkiDee: raises 200 to 300
DokterD: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Qs Ts Kd]
Alright, not my choice of flops, but obviously you can't assume you are beat, and you can't give any free cards to someone with any pair, a jack or spades, so I'm pretty sure a continuation bet is mandatory here. Again, a lot of opponents will read your preflop raise and continuation bet as an extended steal, and may still put you on a bluff. It's certainly possible as I've played a thousand hands like this as a bluff. Again, for the purposes of this game, lets assume you bet here, as I did.
RikkiDee: bets 400
DokterD: calls 400
*** TURN *** [Qs Ts Kd] [Ks]
Ok, here is where I'm leaving it up to you, if you are still with me. Some things to think about. He called your preflop raise and your flop bet. Unless he is still putting you on complete bluff and wants to just take the pot away on the turn, he has at least something that hit this flop. Now, the turn brings probabbly the worst card in the deck for you, pairing the king, as well as bringing the possible spade flush. So if he has 2 spades, or any king, you are beat. Of course, it isn't guaranteed that he has either of these, but you wern't happy with that turn card. On the other hand, you do have the draw to the nut flush with your ace, as well as a gutshot straight draw, a royal flush draw if the jack of spades comes and hey, an ace could come, giving you the nut full house, so you probabbly have some outs if you assume you are indeed beat.
Ok the pot is now 1350 and you have 750 remaining. Your opponent has you covered big time.
Your options are:
A) Push all in. Make him pay for the draw if he has a hand like QJ or JT. If he has you beat, he has you beat.
B) Check, and see what he does. If he puts you all in, you assume he has you beat and despite your possible outs, fold.
C) Check, and see what he does. If he puts you all in, you hope he is bluffing or has a worse hand and by checking you induced a bluff. If indeed he does have you beat with a King or small flush, you can still out draw him.
D) Assume you are beat, fold without contest.
Personally, I lean towards D
Imagine yourself in my shoes here - what would your move be? How would you play this hand? I ask this because I truly have no answer. I have no idea how to play this hand the way that the cards came.
The game is a $55 buy-in, turbo sit&go on Poker Stars.
It is about 20 hands into the tournament, and you have no real read on your opponent (DokterD). He doubled up early with AA vs KK preflop, which really doesn't tell you much. The starting chips are:
Seat 6: RikkiDee (1450 in chips)
Seat 7: DokterD (3990 in chips)
There are 6 other players still alive in the tournament, but they arn't involved in the hand.
You are in the SB, he is the BB, it is folded to you.
RikkiDee: posts small blind 50
DokterD: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Ad As]
You are dealt aces, a hand that makes you or breaks you. Fortunately, a raise in this position is generally considered a stealing raise, so I think it is mandatory to raise here. While limping is obvioulsy an option, it isn't what I did so lets play along.
RikkiDee: raises 200 to 300
DokterD: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Qs Ts Kd]
Alright, not my choice of flops, but obviously you can't assume you are beat, and you can't give any free cards to someone with any pair, a jack or spades, so I'm pretty sure a continuation bet is mandatory here. Again, a lot of opponents will read your preflop raise and continuation bet as an extended steal, and may still put you on a bluff. It's certainly possible as I've played a thousand hands like this as a bluff. Again, for the purposes of this game, lets assume you bet here, as I did.
RikkiDee: bets 400
DokterD: calls 400
*** TURN *** [Qs Ts Kd] [Ks]
Ok, here is where I'm leaving it up to you, if you are still with me. Some things to think about. He called your preflop raise and your flop bet. Unless he is still putting you on complete bluff and wants to just take the pot away on the turn, he has at least something that hit this flop. Now, the turn brings probabbly the worst card in the deck for you, pairing the king, as well as bringing the possible spade flush. So if he has 2 spades, or any king, you are beat. Of course, it isn't guaranteed that he has either of these, but you wern't happy with that turn card. On the other hand, you do have the draw to the nut flush with your ace, as well as a gutshot straight draw, a royal flush draw if the jack of spades comes and hey, an ace could come, giving you the nut full house, so you probabbly have some outs if you assume you are indeed beat.
Ok the pot is now 1350 and you have 750 remaining. Your opponent has you covered big time.
Your options are:
A) Push all in. Make him pay for the draw if he has a hand like QJ or JT. If he has you beat, he has you beat.
B) Check, and see what he does. If he puts you all in, you assume he has you beat and despite your possible outs, fold.
C) Check, and see what he does. If he puts you all in, you hope he is bluffing or has a worse hand and by checking you induced a bluff. If indeed he does have you beat with a King or small flush, you can still out draw him.
D) Assume you are beat, fold without contest.
Personally, I lean towards D
posted by RikkiDee at 11:10 PM
3 Comments:
got me stumped, but I personnaly would have raised all in on the flop..
After the flop I would be looking to lose as little as possible with this hand. That does not mean folding.
The call preflop is nearly meaningless. However, combined with the call on the flop I am putting him on two face cards. I might suspect a reraise if he had two pair. Top pair seems like a good bet. Possibly a J kicker?
The 2nd King on the river is ugly. I think he probably has me beat at this point, but he could be on a draw. I'm not terribly afraid of the flush at this point, but I wouldn't go all-in against that possibility.
I want more information on his hand. Make a probe bet of around 1/4 to 1/3 of the pot. Make it look like something you want him to call. Like you aren't afraid of offering him odds. It looks like you are giving odds for the straight draw here, but you really are not since you have two of the aces. From his point of view you are offering odds that put his EV around zero. Maybe he'll fold.
If he calls then check the river unless you make the straight flush. I don't like the KT, KQ possibilities.
If he raises then let the hand go.
Alan, sorry for the delayed response to this, hope you read it.
While I think your strategy would be correct if we were both deeper stacked compared to the blinds, the fact that I have less than the actual pot right now on the turn leads me to believe that a probe bet will just be throwing money away, while not really finding out any information. Since I bet 400 on the flop and only have 700 left, I can't very well go ahead and bet something like 300 now, which just screams weakness. Either way, anyone with a semblance of a hand here is going to call any bet I make. Think of my flop bet as a probe bet. I got pretty much all the information I need - he has some kind of hand.
Truthfully, after some thought, I think that pushing all in on the flop would probabbly have been the best play. That way, someone with just 1 king may call your overbet and have to draw out on you, same goes for other draws. This maximizes the chance that you take the pot now, since there is so many scare cards out there you don't mind doing so. But faced with this decision on the turn, I think a check and call of any bet is probabbly the right move, since you can't fold with your draws and possibly the best hand if you induced a bluff or a bet from a worse hand.
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