Wednesday, February 08, 2006

ugh..

Bustout report from the mighty $3 rebuy on Stars tonight.

Played my standard game but was picking up a lot of premium hands and had my stack up to the top 20% after about 3 hours of play.

Anyways heres the hand.

Table '19224856 72' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: RikkiDee (41370 in chips)
Seat 2: yarster1 (6739 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: IO_anto (40388 in chips)
Seat 4: thoroughnut (1225 in chips)
Seat 5: ghear (21320 in chips)
Seat 6: crunch55 (13967 in chips)
Seat 7: MarylandMike (35087 in chips)
Seat 8: GCards1 (20050 in chips)
Seat 9: pfurious (55068 in chips)
pfurious: posts small blind 600
RikkiDee: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [5s 9h]
yarster1: folds
IO_anto: calls 1200
thoroughnut: folds
ghear: folds
crunch55: folds
MarylandMike: folds
GCards1: folds
pfurious: calls 600
RikkiDee: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 5d 6d]

Ok try not to scroll down to the results before you read my thoughts here. I hit trip 5s, and am involved with the other 2 massive stacks at the table with +40k in chips each. I'm pretty happy as I can see someone making a move for this pot and I'll at least get a nice big bet from someone.

pfurious: checks
RikkiDee: checks
IO_anto: bets 3600
pfurious: raises 50193 to 53793 and is all-in
RikkiDee: calls 40095 and is all-in
IO_anto: calls 35513 and is all-in

So I check, and predictably the guy in position makes a big bet, probabbly a bluff or maybe a draw, he clearly wouldn't bet that much with 66 or A5 or something. Now before I can make my move, the SB guy pushes for a massive overbet. I have a tough decision now since my kicker is only a 9 and he could easily have me beat. I sat here thinking about this call for the full 60 seconds. I eventually concluded that I probabbly wouldn't get an opportunity this good the rest of the tournament to double up to a big leader. That coupled with the fact that his reraise was just a tad too big to be trips/full house, and a flush draw seemed more than likely. So I call. And to my suprise, the other guy *INSTA* calls. Now I am pretty sure I have the 2nd best hand.

*** TURN *** [5c 5d 6d] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [5c 5d 6d 7s] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
pfurious: shows [Ts Th] (two pair, Tens and Fives)
RikkiDee: shows [5s 9h] (three of a kind, Fives)
RikkiDee collected 1964 from side pot
IO_anto: shows [Kc Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Fives)
IO_anto collected 121614 from main pot

Now that is painfull. Now when I thought of posting this I didn't mean it to be a bad beat tale, honestly. What I wanted to discuss was the legitimacy of my call. In this situation I figure I'm beat probabbly 30% of the time, and against a flush draw the other 70%. Only true fish will make this move with an overpair. Ahem. So basically 30% of the time I lose outright and out of the 70% remaining I will end up losing to a sucked out flush 35% of the time, which brings that to about 25% loss. Add that to the 30% of the time that they have me beat already and thats 55% total - a losing call. So maybe I should fold here. I don't know, I just hate putting my huge stack up to bat even though I have a strong hand just to call a massive overbet. The fact that a flush draw is so likely here makes me think that its just not worth it to gamble here. I guess I need some more experience playing a biggish stack in a deep stack rebuy tournament, since I'm sure most good players would have a pretty standard play here - call or fold.

Oh one more thing. How can KK possibly be good here? I realize it's a rebuy tournament and people are pretty loose, but to have someone reraise their whole stack and then another person call that big overbet... I mean, KK may as well be 27o at this point. Well I guess he does have 2 outs, which seems to be more than enough for a lot of players. Sometimes I just want to ask my opponents to think before they call.

me - Ok buddy, before you call, think, what can you beat?

fish - I have teh bestests hand. I limpded in wiht teh kowboys so no one will ever put me on it. I am a genius. Look they must both have a 6 and think that I am bluffing!! Hilarious. Ship those chips to me.

me - you know you are probabbly drawing to 2 outs?

fish - I have KK. What are outs?

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

its okay smith like 95% of the time you take the pot down.

2:35 PM  

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