Monday, July 17, 2006

Anna Kournikova - looks good, never wins

All is well in SNG land. I took the weekend+1 off to drink, sweat and be merry. I also went to Canada's Wonderland and dropped a cool $200 on probabbly just food since my girlfriend doesn't like rides. Went back to work today and scored a nice $450 win in just 2 sets.

I've been thinking about this hand for a while, so I thought I would post it. Generally most hands aren't that interesting because you are playing against random donks and you don't have any room to make any "moves" because they cheerfully call you down with K high anyways. The main difference in this hand is that the player in question is a SNG regular, and posts often on 2+2. Basically anyone who multitables these things and posts on 2+2 comes to the same understanding about how to play certain hands that I do. In that regards they are very easy to play against as you can count on them not to bluff or get out of line. When they raise early game you can put them on a very narrow range of hands. Since there really arn't that many 2+2'ers who play the 60s on stars, there usually arn't that many clashes between them and I, so I generally ignore them. Anyways, here is the hand in question.




Ok what do you think? Pretty ugly right? Ok lets analyze this.

As stated, when a solid multitabler (herein known as SMT) raises in the first few levels, you can put them on a range of about 8 hands (probabbly something like TT-AA, AQs-AK). You will never ever see a SMT raise with KJ, 77, ATs or other marginal hands. This early it just isn't worth it to fuck around with these trash hands when you have limited concentration as well as an abundance of donks willing to push with 2nd pair this early.

Assuming we call and not reraise preflop every time, what is the optimal way to play this flop? We've hit top pair here, which is fine and dandy. But now we are faced with a bet. Basically any SMT will continuation bet this flop no matter what he has (even a set). If we assume him to have one of the 8 previously listed hands, we are now beating 3 and tying 2 of 8. The remaining 3 (TT, KK, AA) are crushing us. So this is a classic situation of being way ahead or way behind with the off chance of a split pot (if he has AK).

Now, if we are way ahead, my raise will get him to fold for sure. But do I necessarily want that? I mean, I do have top pair here. If we are way behind, we'll get what happened and they'll push and we can fold.

The trouble of course is determining which side of the fence we are on here. At the time I figured the best way to determine this was to raise. Now I'm not so sure.

By raising I'm essentially turning my hand from AK to 23o since it has no showdown value if I'm planning on folding to an all in. Even when he folds I wouldn't say that is necessarily a good result as he is only folding way way way worse hands. Hands in which I shouldn't fear a draw out and may get him to put more chips in the pot with a smooth call. Since I know he doesn't have trash like KQ or J9, I can slow play this hand because I know at best he is drawing to 2 outs.

By calling I can keep the pot small for when I'm behind, and allow him to put more money in the pot when I'm ahead. In the case where he has AK he will most likely slow down by at least the river if not the turn and the hand will be over and chopped. If he has a set or aces, he'll continue to fire and it is that situation where I'll have to make the tough decision. I don't imagine any SMT firing three bullets as a bluff against me, unless they just have a hard-on to out play me, so I can basically rule that out. I also don't imagine a SMT firing three bets with just AK or even AA here, since most players would be too cautious to get all in with just one pair this early. Obviously deciding to call a big turn bet would be the toughest part of the hand if it had occured that way, and thats why I originally went for the flop raise, to get more info in case he did continue to be aggressive.

All in all, an interesting hand. Too bad I never got to see what he had, as I have a wierd suspicion that he had AK. But most smart SMT's play sets the exact same way as well, so it's tough to say.

1 Comments:

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