Enjoy the ride
I have this weird feeling that the biggest downswing / breakeven stretch is approaching. I can’t say that I’ve been running amazing, but I’ve definitely been turning a profit. Throughout the month, after reviewing games, there are just so many times that I could have easily lost, yet the right cards came. Obviously that is the whole thing about SNGs, and putting myself on the good side of all ins is pretty much my job, but being only a 55% favorite clearly adds a lot of variance to the equation.
Downswings are inevitable. I know that. I havn’t had one for a while. And despite what I know about probability and independent trials, I still feel I’m due. When a downswing starts, at first you ignore it. It’s just a random blip on the variance radar. Tommorow will be a winning day. Then more losses come. You start to consider that you aren’t playing the same. You start considering things in your life that may have caused you to play bad. Am I playing tired? Hungry? You start doing irrational things like making sure to only play during certain hours of the day, or try to invent a system of joining games in which you have a larger edge over the competition than usual. Meanwhile your brain forgets that for months you’ve been winning without considering any externalities. Your game begins to suffer even more. You keep telling yourself that you are playing the same, but are unconsciously avoiding high risk situations and continue to see bad results. Your confidence is destroyed. You feel that any move you make will be caught and every time you make the right move, your opponent will suckout. Your bad-play becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and until you realize that your game has changed, you probably won’t return to glory.
But because the optimum play isn’t always clear in SNGs, you can review your games and justify each and every play. And even though each play may be justified in some way, it isn’t your normal play - the normal confident play that you make when you are running normal.
So how do you get out of a downswing? Well the easy answer is to maintain your confidence and continue on as if nothing has happened. Don’t let some bad run of luck effect your decisions. Standard shit. If in blackjack you hit on 16 25 times in a row when the dealer is showing 7+ and lose, you aren’t going to start standing, hoping for the best. You understand probability. You understand the optimal +EV play. You just need to be mentally stable enough to ignore the results and keep on keepin’ on. A good poker player is one who can take emotion and results out of their game. It’s something every decent player has trained themselves to do on a microcosmic level. Don’t let that suckout affect your play for the rest of the session. We all know that. Now we just need to transfer that thought process to a higher level. Each hand, tournament, session, day, week, month and year are all independent of each other. Just ignore losses.
When that downswing comes next week for me, I hope I can actually do some of these things and not freak the fuck out.
Downswings are inevitable. I know that. I havn’t had one for a while. And despite what I know about probability and independent trials, I still feel I’m due. When a downswing starts, at first you ignore it. It’s just a random blip on the variance radar. Tommorow will be a winning day. Then more losses come. You start to consider that you aren’t playing the same. You start considering things in your life that may have caused you to play bad. Am I playing tired? Hungry? You start doing irrational things like making sure to only play during certain hours of the day, or try to invent a system of joining games in which you have a larger edge over the competition than usual. Meanwhile your brain forgets that for months you’ve been winning without considering any externalities. Your game begins to suffer even more. You keep telling yourself that you are playing the same, but are unconsciously avoiding high risk situations and continue to see bad results. Your confidence is destroyed. You feel that any move you make will be caught and every time you make the right move, your opponent will suckout. Your bad-play becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and until you realize that your game has changed, you probably won’t return to glory.
But because the optimum play isn’t always clear in SNGs, you can review your games and justify each and every play. And even though each play may be justified in some way, it isn’t your normal play - the normal confident play that you make when you are running normal.
So how do you get out of a downswing? Well the easy answer is to maintain your confidence and continue on as if nothing has happened. Don’t let some bad run of luck effect your decisions. Standard shit. If in blackjack you hit on 16 25 times in a row when the dealer is showing 7+ and lose, you aren’t going to start standing, hoping for the best. You understand probability. You understand the optimal +EV play. You just need to be mentally stable enough to ignore the results and keep on keepin’ on. A good poker player is one who can take emotion and results out of their game. It’s something every decent player has trained themselves to do on a microcosmic level. Don’t let that suckout affect your play for the rest of the session. We all know that. Now we just need to transfer that thought process to a higher level. Each hand, tournament, session, day, week, month and year are all independent of each other. Just ignore losses.
When that downswing comes next week for me, I hope I can actually do some of these things and not freak the fuck out.
posted by RikkiDee at 8:08 PM
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