Pushing over limpers
I remember promising to do a strategy post eventually. Well, I figure, since I’m losing, and am fresh out of posts that don’t involve whining about losing, this may be a good time to try one. And who knows, maybe I’ll learn something. Maybe I’ll discover that elusive leak that is causing my losses.
This is going to pertain directly to late game Sit&Go’s, and I suppose, MTT’s too.
Alright, every good SNG player has adopted essentially the same late game strategy – the pushbot. Once your stack gets to the magical mark of 10bb, essentially the only move you have is to go all in preflop. Skill at this point is the ability to correctly assume your opponents calling ranges. When you are about to push, since you have zero information about the strength of your opponents hands, you can only assume they have been dealt a random assortment of cards, in which they may or may not call. If you are sitting there with 23o on the button and it’s folded to you, it may be profitable to push this hand all in depending on the style of your opponents in the blinds. If they are the type to only call with strong hands, then yes, push away. But if they either suck and will call with K9o or they are really good and they will call with K9o, then you are better off folding and waiting for a better spot.
Anyways, that is beyond the scope of this post. Get Sit & Go Poker Tracker if you are unfamiliar with standard pushbot strategy.
This post deals with when you have a little extra information about your opponent’s hands before pushing. How do you obtain that you ask? Simple - they have acted before you. Each opponent before you has the conscious choice to fold, call, raise or push each hand (duh). When they push, it’s a fairly straight forward decision for you, since they’ve taken away any “play” you can make, you no longer have any fold equity. You can only call and win at showdown, and obviously need a fairly strong hand (basically stronger than theirs) to call.
But what is your play when they raise, but not all in? Or how about when they limp? Do things change? Well, it all depends. Many people early game will limp with a ton of shit, since they have so many chips relative to the blinds. But once the blinds are representing a large portion of each players stack, everyone is much less likely to limp with shit (obviously there are exceptions). So, when a player limps at this point, and you are sitting there with a hand you would have pushed had it been folded to you, what’s your play?
Again it depends. But for the most part, if they are limping late game, they are either trapping with a big hand, or they just suck and are limping with some marginal hand they either should have raised with or folded. Generally, you will be able to tell. Good players simply don’t open limp with marginal shit late game. You can be almost certain that if you see a good player limp late game when they have around 10bb, they have KK+. If you are sitting there on the button with A7 and you see a good player limp ahead of you, throw it away.
Now, when you are faced with a bad player limping late game, this is where your decision making will make a huge difference in long term EV. Bad players limp with marginal to good hands late game. They generally limp with low-mid pairs (22-99), 2 face cards, semi-weak aces (A2-AT) and suited connectors. Most bad players will know enough to raise with premium aces and pairs, but you will still see many limping with them for reasons unexplained. What they intend to gain by limping AQo late game is beyond my understanding, but you will see it, albeit infrequently.
Now, when you are sitting there with your 2 cards that you probably would have pushed into the blinds if it was folded to you, you have to decide if it is worth it to try to push over the limper as well as the blinds. Mathematically the presence of the limper makes the pot odds of your push stronger, since there is more money in the pot to win. But, obviously, it is harder to push over a limper that has shown some semi-interest in the hand, rather than just the blinds.
Without going too much into the math behind it, you need to be pushing a tighter range when a donk has decided to limp. In my experience the limper will call an all in about 50% the time. Since they have limped, they have already shown a proclivity to suck. And we all know that sucky players don’t like to fold. I see a lot of regular multitablers pushing a huge range when there is a limper in the pot. I on the other hand take a slightly more conservative approach. Since I know they will call all in’s often, I have to push with hands that have a decent chance against what they are going to call with. Let’s go through all the hands they will call with.
1. Pairs (22-TT): For these hands ideally you want a higher pair, but 2 overcards isn’t a terrible result if they decide to call. Having a weakish Ace here is probably the worst result since usually you will be worse than 40% to double up (ie A5 vs 66). Suited connectors probably fare the worst against mid pairs since often times you’ll either be dominated, share a card with the pair or even have 2 undercards.
2 Face Cards: For these hands having an ace is your best bet, since any ace is about a 55% favorite over 2 face cards. A pair is about the same as having an ace here, as most pairs are 55% favorites over 2 higher cards. Suited connectors here fare better than against pairs but still are pretty big underdogs. Yes you will have “live cards” but still an underdog. But, they are not as bad as what can happen if you push 2 face cards yourself. If you decide to go all the way with QJ and they turn over KQ, you obviously are fucked. Pushing 2 face cards here other than exactly KQ is definitely a –EV move, assuming you somehow know they have 2 face cards as well.
3. Weak Aces (A2-AT): What’s interesting about them calling with weak aces, is that you can almost push any 2 cards and never be that big of an underdog. Pairs are your best bet here, as generally you’ll be between a 51-65% favorite, depending on where your pair lands. With 2 face cards you are a dog, but only a 45% one. And even if you push a weak ace yourself, unless they have a stronger than average kicker (8 through King) you aren’t really in that bad of shape since often times you will split the pot, and other times you can suckout by pairing your kicker. Suited connectors again fare badly. They run into big problems when they share a card with an ace.
4. Big Pairs (TT-AA): Obviously if they “trapped” you with a big pair you are in big trouble no matter what you have. Your best bet here is a weak ace, since you generally will have an overcard on your side. All other hands other than maybe hands containing a K are going to need a lot of help, and you are probably going to lose. Even the fabled suited connectors don’t perform good enough to make pushing a +EV play. They don’t even outperform a weak ace, unless against exactly AA.
Putting all this in a chart, we get (using poker stove):
Damn that took a shitload of time to calculate. But at least I learned something.
The fact is, when dealing with late game limpers, you are treading on dangerous territory. They are apt to call you often and even though you can even go in ahead sometimes, you will often lose and it will drive you nuts. That being said, if you can play robotic and simply look at every play by its relative EV, you can use these numbers to guide you.
Now, in the chart, I left out “obvious” pushes like AT+ and TT+, since with those hand you are generally going to be ahead and don’t have to worry too much about being called, since that is essentially what you want if you are ahead. Now, if it is a bubble situation, it changes everything, and you probably want to ignore all this.
As you can see, pushing with suited connectors isn’t the greatest idea in the world against their limping range, so you can probably ignore pushing any other 2 cards not listed, as they will fare equally or worse.
Otherwise, the best way to use the chart is to first compare your stack size to the blinds. If you are around 10bb or under, then you can consider pushing. Now, in order to figure out your equity in the hand, you’ll have to do some quick poker math. You’ll have to consider your stack size, the pot size, and the chance that the blinds and / or the limper will call. As stated earlier, in my experience, a limper here will call 50% of the time. Yes, I got that number completely from my ass, and is probably way off (probably on the low side). I’d be interested in parsing some hand histories to determine how much they are calling, but let’s assume 50% for now.
So if you do your regular assumption about the calling ranges of the blinds, you can now somewhat accurately define the equity of your push over the limper as well. With the assumption that they are calling 50% of the time (as I think about it, that number seems way too low) pushing with any ace, any two face cards and any pair seem to be +EV, since even if they call, we aren’t in horrible shape. The extra chips they put in the pot just adds to the equity of the play, and for every time they fold, you gain big time in the long run.
Obviously, this isn’t a play to get carried away with as your opponents will actively try to get you to push over them if they see you doing it a lot. Always be aware the second time you see a donk limp, as generally they are either trapping or are going to call you no matter what.
Alright, I’m really tired, and if you made it through the post, congrats. Hopefully I can touch on how to react to a raise rather than a limp later.
This is going to pertain directly to late game Sit&Go’s, and I suppose, MTT’s too.
Alright, every good SNG player has adopted essentially the same late game strategy – the pushbot. Once your stack gets to the magical mark of 10bb, essentially the only move you have is to go all in preflop. Skill at this point is the ability to correctly assume your opponents calling ranges. When you are about to push, since you have zero information about the strength of your opponents hands, you can only assume they have been dealt a random assortment of cards, in which they may or may not call. If you are sitting there with 23o on the button and it’s folded to you, it may be profitable to push this hand all in depending on the style of your opponents in the blinds. If they are the type to only call with strong hands, then yes, push away. But if they either suck and will call with K9o or they are really good and they will call with K9o, then you are better off folding and waiting for a better spot.
Anyways, that is beyond the scope of this post. Get Sit & Go Poker Tracker if you are unfamiliar with standard pushbot strategy.
This post deals with when you have a little extra information about your opponent’s hands before pushing. How do you obtain that you ask? Simple - they have acted before you. Each opponent before you has the conscious choice to fold, call, raise or push each hand (duh). When they push, it’s a fairly straight forward decision for you, since they’ve taken away any “play” you can make, you no longer have any fold equity. You can only call and win at showdown, and obviously need a fairly strong hand (basically stronger than theirs) to call.
But what is your play when they raise, but not all in? Or how about when they limp? Do things change? Well, it all depends. Many people early game will limp with a ton of shit, since they have so many chips relative to the blinds. But once the blinds are representing a large portion of each players stack, everyone is much less likely to limp with shit (obviously there are exceptions). So, when a player limps at this point, and you are sitting there with a hand you would have pushed had it been folded to you, what’s your play?
Again it depends. But for the most part, if they are limping late game, they are either trapping with a big hand, or they just suck and are limping with some marginal hand they either should have raised with or folded. Generally, you will be able to tell. Good players simply don’t open limp with marginal shit late game. You can be almost certain that if you see a good player limp late game when they have around 10bb, they have KK+. If you are sitting there on the button with A7 and you see a good player limp ahead of you, throw it away.
Now, when you are faced with a bad player limping late game, this is where your decision making will make a huge difference in long term EV. Bad players limp with marginal to good hands late game. They generally limp with low-mid pairs (22-99), 2 face cards, semi-weak aces (A2-AT) and suited connectors. Most bad players will know enough to raise with premium aces and pairs, but you will still see many limping with them for reasons unexplained. What they intend to gain by limping AQo late game is beyond my understanding, but you will see it, albeit infrequently.
Now, when you are sitting there with your 2 cards that you probably would have pushed into the blinds if it was folded to you, you have to decide if it is worth it to try to push over the limper as well as the blinds. Mathematically the presence of the limper makes the pot odds of your push stronger, since there is more money in the pot to win. But, obviously, it is harder to push over a limper that has shown some semi-interest in the hand, rather than just the blinds.
Without going too much into the math behind it, you need to be pushing a tighter range when a donk has decided to limp. In my experience the limper will call an all in about 50% the time. Since they have limped, they have already shown a proclivity to suck. And we all know that sucky players don’t like to fold. I see a lot of regular multitablers pushing a huge range when there is a limper in the pot. I on the other hand take a slightly more conservative approach. Since I know they will call all in’s often, I have to push with hands that have a decent chance against what they are going to call with. Let’s go through all the hands they will call with.
1. Pairs (22-TT): For these hands ideally you want a higher pair, but 2 overcards isn’t a terrible result if they decide to call. Having a weakish Ace here is probably the worst result since usually you will be worse than 40% to double up (ie A5 vs 66). Suited connectors probably fare the worst against mid pairs since often times you’ll either be dominated, share a card with the pair or even have 2 undercards.
2 Face Cards: For these hands having an ace is your best bet, since any ace is about a 55% favorite over 2 face cards. A pair is about the same as having an ace here, as most pairs are 55% favorites over 2 higher cards. Suited connectors here fare better than against pairs but still are pretty big underdogs. Yes you will have “live cards” but still an underdog. But, they are not as bad as what can happen if you push 2 face cards yourself. If you decide to go all the way with QJ and they turn over KQ, you obviously are fucked. Pushing 2 face cards here other than exactly KQ is definitely a –EV move, assuming you somehow know they have 2 face cards as well.
3. Weak Aces (A2-AT): What’s interesting about them calling with weak aces, is that you can almost push any 2 cards and never be that big of an underdog. Pairs are your best bet here, as generally you’ll be between a 51-65% favorite, depending on where your pair lands. With 2 face cards you are a dog, but only a 45% one. And even if you push a weak ace yourself, unless they have a stronger than average kicker (8 through King) you aren’t really in that bad of shape since often times you will split the pot, and other times you can suckout by pairing your kicker. Suited connectors again fare badly. They run into big problems when they share a card with an ace.
4. Big Pairs (TT-AA): Obviously if they “trapped” you with a big pair you are in big trouble no matter what you have. Your best bet here is a weak ace, since you generally will have an overcard on your side. All other hands other than maybe hands containing a K are going to need a lot of help, and you are probably going to lose. Even the fabled suited connectors don’t perform good enough to make pushing a +EV play. They don’t even outperform a weak ace, unless against exactly AA.
Putting all this in a chart, we get (using poker stove):
Damn that took a shitload of time to calculate. But at least I learned something.
The fact is, when dealing with late game limpers, you are treading on dangerous territory. They are apt to call you often and even though you can even go in ahead sometimes, you will often lose and it will drive you nuts. That being said, if you can play robotic and simply look at every play by its relative EV, you can use these numbers to guide you.
Now, in the chart, I left out “obvious” pushes like AT+ and TT+, since with those hand you are generally going to be ahead and don’t have to worry too much about being called, since that is essentially what you want if you are ahead. Now, if it is a bubble situation, it changes everything, and you probably want to ignore all this.
As you can see, pushing with suited connectors isn’t the greatest idea in the world against their limping range, so you can probably ignore pushing any other 2 cards not listed, as they will fare equally or worse.
Otherwise, the best way to use the chart is to first compare your stack size to the blinds. If you are around 10bb or under, then you can consider pushing. Now, in order to figure out your equity in the hand, you’ll have to do some quick poker math. You’ll have to consider your stack size, the pot size, and the chance that the blinds and / or the limper will call. As stated earlier, in my experience, a limper here will call 50% of the time. Yes, I got that number completely from my ass, and is probably way off (probably on the low side). I’d be interested in parsing some hand histories to determine how much they are calling, but let’s assume 50% for now.
So if you do your regular assumption about the calling ranges of the blinds, you can now somewhat accurately define the equity of your push over the limper as well. With the assumption that they are calling 50% of the time (as I think about it, that number seems way too low) pushing with any ace, any two face cards and any pair seem to be +EV, since even if they call, we aren’t in horrible shape. The extra chips they put in the pot just adds to the equity of the play, and for every time they fold, you gain big time in the long run.
Obviously, this isn’t a play to get carried away with as your opponents will actively try to get you to push over them if they see you doing it a lot. Always be aware the second time you see a donk limp, as generally they are either trapping or are going to call you no matter what.
Alright, I’m really tired, and if you made it through the post, congrats. Hopefully I can touch on how to react to a raise rather than a limp later.
posted by RikkiDee at 2:45 AM
1 Comments:
yo nice post, theres nothing like seeing somone limp with 5's and then calling an allin to 6's.... does anyone know about fold equity? seriously
WP
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