Impending Doom Switch Alert
As I've been saying; I run goot since coming back from Vegas.
Thats 21% ROI over 213 games. As they say in the poker world; unsustainable. Which leads me to my thought of the day.
I was strolling around in a mall this morning, waiting for the stores to open so I could buy some replacement wipers and headlights for my car. As I walked around, unshowered, hair a mess and wearing basically a sweat suit, I pondered for a moment how my life has become significantly altered since becoming a full time poker player. I observed the patrons in the mall, mostly workers of stores yet to open, and thought to myself how completely different my life is compared to the average person. They were meeting up with coworkers, drinking their coffees. Just a normal day. But a normal day for them is essentially the same as any other; struggling with the daily grind, working for the various man's.
Now, I have lived that life for a short period of time, so I have some vague understanding of the psyches of the average citizen in their position. As I walked by each person, their life flashed before my eyes. Each vision was the same - depressing and full of resentment. Now perhaps that is just my vision of what a regular working life is like, but it seemed to ring true in the faces that I saw. It was at that moment that I realized how satisfied I am with my "career" choice.
I honestly couldn't be happier. And even though the future is uncertain in numerous ways, I don't think I could be maximizing my utility any further. But this sense of satisfaction will almost certainly be short lived. Like any other long-term utility sacrificed for short-term it will almost certainly come back to me and ultimately make my life worse. But since I've survived with a generally narrow minded existence for my first 25 years, I think I can make it work. And who knows, maybe this poker thing won't end anytime soon and I'll continue moving up in stakes and be a millionaire in 5 years. A man can dream.
I know this may sound like a thinly veiled brag post, putting myself above the common working person, but that's not what my intentions are. People are rational maximizer's. They will consciously or unconsciously seek out the activity/job/vocation that maximizes their utility in comparison to any alternative. For the average person, despite days of bitterness towards the daily grind, they still have chosen said grind because it is their best option for satisfying their internal happiness equation. By choosing poker as my occupation, I have made a conscious decision that it will offer me the most by sacrificing the least. To me, going to work every day, dealing with obnoxious, mind numbing coworkers and tasks simply does not compute. For others, they must be able to deal with it better, and enjoy some aspects in order to get by. Sure they wish there were improvements, but all things considered, this is the best they can do. And for me, poker is the best I can do.
So there are my thoughts, dull and spelled out as clear as day. I suppose I could have summed that all up by saying; I'm pretty satisfied with my choices in life. Onto my next thought.
Getting back to the opening of the post, I've been running pretty good lately. Not exceptionally well, but definitely above the reasonable expectation. Which got me thinking, when is it going to turn around? And more importantly, why? I mean, I'm a pretty logical and rational person. And even though I play essentially the same game every day, making essentially the same decisions hour after hour, my win rate will inevitably go down. Through no fault of my own, I will start to lose. And I know that just like roulette, despite past results, I have the same expected value of results for the future. And even though my rational brain can accept it, my risk-averse, irrational side looks at the numbers and sees a variance ass kicking in the future. I know through history that my long-term "real" ROI is somewhere between 13-15%. And since I'm running at 21% for the month, a nice little run of 2% or worse is just around the corner. These two concepts my brain struggles with.
On one hand, I know each game is independent of one another. And therefore I theoretically can continue running at 21% indefinitely. But on the other, I know a downswing is coming and can only wonder why and how the math gods work things out the way they do. How is it going to happen? Is it going to be a random lapse in judgement? A bunch of cold-decks followed by some suckouts? It's an interesting notion to me, as I experience first hand the microcosm of factors that attribute to my overall long term ROI, whereas an outsider can simply look at my 4,500 games, see the trend and accept it based purely on mathematical principals.
I definitely need to stop staying up so late and over thinking my existence and put an end to these long fairly bland posts.
Thats 21% ROI over 213 games. As they say in the poker world; unsustainable. Which leads me to my thought of the day.
I was strolling around in a mall this morning, waiting for the stores to open so I could buy some replacement wipers and headlights for my car. As I walked around, unshowered, hair a mess and wearing basically a sweat suit, I pondered for a moment how my life has become significantly altered since becoming a full time poker player. I observed the patrons in the mall, mostly workers of stores yet to open, and thought to myself how completely different my life is compared to the average person. They were meeting up with coworkers, drinking their coffees. Just a normal day. But a normal day for them is essentially the same as any other; struggling with the daily grind, working for the various man's.
Now, I have lived that life for a short period of time, so I have some vague understanding of the psyches of the average citizen in their position. As I walked by each person, their life flashed before my eyes. Each vision was the same - depressing and full of resentment. Now perhaps that is just my vision of what a regular working life is like, but it seemed to ring true in the faces that I saw. It was at that moment that I realized how satisfied I am with my "career" choice.
I honestly couldn't be happier. And even though the future is uncertain in numerous ways, I don't think I could be maximizing my utility any further. But this sense of satisfaction will almost certainly be short lived. Like any other long-term utility sacrificed for short-term it will almost certainly come back to me and ultimately make my life worse. But since I've survived with a generally narrow minded existence for my first 25 years, I think I can make it work. And who knows, maybe this poker thing won't end anytime soon and I'll continue moving up in stakes and be a millionaire in 5 years. A man can dream.
I know this may sound like a thinly veiled brag post, putting myself above the common working person, but that's not what my intentions are. People are rational maximizer's. They will consciously or unconsciously seek out the activity/job/vocation that maximizes their utility in comparison to any alternative. For the average person, despite days of bitterness towards the daily grind, they still have chosen said grind because it is their best option for satisfying their internal happiness equation. By choosing poker as my occupation, I have made a conscious decision that it will offer me the most by sacrificing the least. To me, going to work every day, dealing with obnoxious, mind numbing coworkers and tasks simply does not compute. For others, they must be able to deal with it better, and enjoy some aspects in order to get by. Sure they wish there were improvements, but all things considered, this is the best they can do. And for me, poker is the best I can do.
So there are my thoughts, dull and spelled out as clear as day. I suppose I could have summed that all up by saying; I'm pretty satisfied with my choices in life. Onto my next thought.
Getting back to the opening of the post, I've been running pretty good lately. Not exceptionally well, but definitely above the reasonable expectation. Which got me thinking, when is it going to turn around? And more importantly, why? I mean, I'm a pretty logical and rational person. And even though I play essentially the same game every day, making essentially the same decisions hour after hour, my win rate will inevitably go down. Through no fault of my own, I will start to lose. And I know that just like roulette, despite past results, I have the same expected value of results for the future. And even though my rational brain can accept it, my risk-averse, irrational side looks at the numbers and sees a variance ass kicking in the future. I know through history that my long-term "real" ROI is somewhere between 13-15%. And since I'm running at 21% for the month, a nice little run of 2% or worse is just around the corner. These two concepts my brain struggles with.
On one hand, I know each game is independent of one another. And therefore I theoretically can continue running at 21% indefinitely. But on the other, I know a downswing is coming and can only wonder why and how the math gods work things out the way they do. How is it going to happen? Is it going to be a random lapse in judgement? A bunch of cold-decks followed by some suckouts? It's an interesting notion to me, as I experience first hand the microcosm of factors that attribute to my overall long term ROI, whereas an outsider can simply look at my 4,500 games, see the trend and accept it based purely on mathematical principals.
I definitely need to stop staying up so late and over thinking my existence and put an end to these long fairly bland posts.
posted by RikkiDee at 8:38 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home