Owning the bubble: A love, hate relationship

One of the absolute keys to consistently beating SNG's is the ability to successfully dominate the bubble. Since 4th place gets no money and 3rd gets more than a buyin back, players will naturally tend to tighten up on the bubble. In fact, it is not only natural for players to tighten up on the bubble, it is mathematically correct to do so.

Say for example you have a marginal hand such as 88 in the big blind, and the stacks are set up like so:

Blinds:200/400

UTG: 1800
Button: 2400
SB: 4200
BB: 3800


All fold to the SB who puts you all in. Now, assuming we weren't on the bubble, this may or may not be a call, depending on your opponent. If we put him on a semi-normal range here of any pair/ace/2 face cards, according to poker stove you have 57% equity over him with 88. Given that information this should be an insta call. But because we are on the bubble, things dramatically change. And its not just that we are on the bubble, its the fact that SB's push puts you all in, and puts you at risk of placing 4th for no money. So even though we will win 57% of the time against him and double up, those times we lose, we lose everything we have invested in this tournament, which is 43% of the time. Compounded on this is the fact that the UTG is fairly short stacked and much more pressured to survive than you are. To make this call given these stacks and reads, you need one of only 3 hands, QQ, KK, or AA.

There is a lot of complicated EV calculations that I could go into further to explain, but the point is clear, the bubble is something you should respect.

Getting back to the point, most players, for whatever reason, realize this to an extent. Maybe they don't tighten up as much as they should, but they generally tighten up somewhat. This tightening on the bubble allows for some seriously +EV pushes.

Now, this is all pretty standard stuff. Everyone vaguely has an idea of these notions. But it is being able to recognize every minuscule amount of EV that the bubble presents itself with that makes good players great.

Now, as the title infers, this can be a frustrating experience. There is no worse feeling in poker than having a big stack on the bubble, trying to push everyone around, getting caught and busting out in 4th yourself. There are a few key elements that go into a successful bubble domination:

1. You must have an above average stack. And more importantly, every time you push, make sure that the opponent(s) you are pushing into have less than you, even by 1 chip.
2. You have to maintain reads on opponents. Even though people tighten up, most take it to an extreme one way or the other. Either they will fold too much, or call too much. You must be able to recognize quickly who is willing to gamble it up on the bubble. Just because you know they shouldn't call, doesn't mean they won't. Clearly there is no easy way to determine this, but look for clues in their play up to this hand. If they've shown a propensity to call with trash, then it's probably best to stay away from them.
3. You have to be relentlessly aggressive. Who cares if you have A5 or 25, as long as your pushes are mathematically unexploitable (wherein even if they call with a ridiculous range of hands they can't make it a -EV play for you) you cannot lose in the long run.
   
4. Don't limit your pushes to open raise all in's. You can also reraise players who have less chips than you if they've elected to raise. This is especially effective if they've raised UTG or on the button, hoping to get heads up with the short stack in the BB, and you are in the SB with a big stack. If you raise all in here, the short BB will generally fold hoping that the original raiser busts. The original raiser, while probably sitting there with a decent hand, will have to fold all but their very best hands as the BB's stack has been further reduced.
5. Do not be afraid of busting out in 4th. Yes, it is painful, but for the one time that it happens, the other 9 times you'll end up winning the whole thing. Respect the bubble but don't fear it.
   

It is also important to not get carried away. There are situations that even though a push may be +EV, you should probably fold one and let the table know that you aren't pushing any 2 cards. Otherwise you will probably receive a big fat spite call from Mr. A7o and it won't be fun. Also, you when reraising players all in, you have to be pretty certain that this will work. Generally it is not smart to do this to bad players, as when they raise, they are usually raising for value and see a reraise as an opportunity to double up, and ignore the bubble completely. The best players to reraise are those that are likely to be targeting the short stack. Also watch for unusual raising sizes such at 2.5xBB, as they are generally designed to fold to resistance.

Here are some interesting hand examples of bubble ownage:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter

Hero (t6580)
SB (t625)
BB (t1745)
UTG (t4550)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5s, 5c.
UTG raises to t1800, Hero raises to t6530, 2 folds, UTG folds

Here is a classic example. There are 2 micro stacks in the blinds, one who is almost all in. UTG probably knows this and probably has some sort of hand that he wouldn't mind busting them out with. The blinds see my raise, and fold (like retards) hoping that I will bust the UTG player. In this case the UTG player is a semi-regular that I play against and I was pretty certain that he would fold this and he did. Now, obviously, regulars are wise to this move and probably won't even raise unless they have a strong hand, but generally you should be fine.

Hand 2:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed)

Hero (t5785)
BB (t975)
UTG (t4640)
Button (t2100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6h, Kh.
1 fold, Button calls t600, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t1650) 9d, 3d, 3h (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets t600, Hero calls t600, BB folds.

Turn: (t2850) 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t2850) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets t1200, Button folds.

Final Pot: t4050

Results below:
Hero has 6h Kh (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins t4050.

Now this is a pretty subtle hand. Notice first that the BB is super short, and is left with around 300 after putting in his big blind. Notice as well that the button is fairly short as well. Now, what usually happens when the BB is super short, is that players with decent hands will limp, the BB pushes, everyone calls and checks it down. Here the BB didn't push so it was a bit different than usual. Once the BB folds, and the button checks behind me I know he just wanted heads up against the BB. He is now in danger of busting out before that ridiculously short stacked BB does. No one likes busting out here. So I bet, putting him all in. Its a very high percentage bet that will win the pot way more often than not, but may be difficult to recognize at first.

As an afterthought, it would have been probably best for me to just push all in here from the SB, hopefully getting the BB to fold and in turn the button to follow, but this way is interesting too.

One last thing about playing on the bubble is that all good players know how to abuse the bubble themselves. Don't even think about raising to steal the blinds without pushing all in, as they will take the play away from you 9/10 times. Pushing is fine, as long as you assign the correct ranges, but raising is just asking for trouble. I know, I know, sometimes you'll be sitting there with 12bb and AQo, but just push. Raising to 2.5bb with the intention of folding to a reraise is utterly pointless, as a good player will surely oblige your fears. Now on the other hand, if you are playing with a bunch of donks who can't reraise without a good hand, go ahead and do that.

They key thing to take away from this post, if anything, is to become more aware of the intricacies of bubble play. The effect of the bubble is 2 fold. You have to become more tight, and also more aggressive. Tight when calling and aggressive when raising. Be aware that players are generally aware that the bubble exists and will naturally tighten up. Exploit this tendency and you'll find yourself in great position when the bubble bursts.