Why did I ever leave home?
Since getting back from the Vegas trip where I got ruined, I haven't lost a session yet online. Not only have I not lost, I've been running hot. Like 20% ROI at the 114s hot. Funny how things even out. I wonder if they have a name that describes that phenomenon.
Regardless, I still think I'm giving up on live play (sans tournaments) for the rest of my life. I've never done overly well and have never really enjoyed it. My simple brain has been too brainwashed with so much useless SNG strategy that cash games are beyond my comprehension. At this point it's like trying to teach a Muslim the fine points of Christianity. It's just not going to happen.
Watching some of the sick amounts being taken down by the WCOOP winners makes me insanely jealous, especially when a lot of the SNG pros I play with are making the money and final tables. I mean, I have to have at least an average chance to final table a big buy-in event. My pushing knowledge alone should put me in the upper tier of donkament players. I have to believe that is true. And who knows, maybe I'm just one lucky day away from a huge 6-figure score.
That being said, I've been playing more MTT's of late. And to be honest, I'm getting ruined. I think it is partially because I'm trying to play SNGs and MTT's at the same time. Sure, on the surface they look the same, but they both have their separate skill sets. I have to gamble a lot less in SNGs. Since 33% of the field gets paid in SNGs, I can often times fold into respectable monies. But in MTT's, I know it's +EV to play for the final table, not just to cash. Thats something I don't think my simple brain has fully comprehended yet, as I generally end up playing my standard SNG game. And also it is hard to determine at first sight whether or not I'm playing a MTT or SNG by just looking at it. So I think if I ever get into MTT's more, I'll play only high buy-in events and try to concentrate soley on them.
I also finally hit Supernova on Stars. Something that any respectable SNG player has done months ago, so its really not that big of a deal. It is simply a reminder that I'm a slacker. But still, it's an improvement, even though I still have no clue what I'm doing with my 200k FPPs.
I really need to lay off on the Football betting. Each week goes the same. I make some picks online for X amount of dollars. Lose. Make more picks on the remaining games for Y amount of dollars (where Y = 2X). Lose, and reload sports account.
It's pretty funny how quickly my "sure" picks turn to shit each and every week. Take this week for example. I was beyond positive that Chicago and Carolina were going to cover, and cover well. Both of them won their games, but by 1 point less than the spread required. Fuck me. Are the odds makers really that fucking good?
I also think I'm done putting any faith in the Patriots and the Steelers for the rest of the season. They just don't seem to be the same teams that they've been in the past. Actually, I've never felt too strongly about the Steelers since the Roethlisberger era started. And week after week throughout the past 2 years I've been punished. So I finally start believe the "hype" and it now looks like they've been eating pieces of shit for breakfast. And the Pats, they've looked like shit-eaters all year too, narrowly beating the hapless bills and jets, and getting stoned in Denver. So much for making up last years loss. I suspect the odds makers will be doing the same in the next few weeks.
This week there looks to be some juicy bets to be made as well, but I'm sure I'll lose regardless. I've always been a non believer in the home team advantage theory, which will reflect in my picks I'm sure (and maybe why I lose). Here are the picks I like this week: (my pick in bold)
Indianapolis (-9) @ New York Jets
How the Jets are only getting 9 here is beyond me. I mean, last week the Jags got 7 and they are a way better team.
San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore
People are really loving the "new look" Ravens here. But they really haven't shown much of anything, despite being 3-0. I mean, they've beaten the Buccs, Raiders and Browns, who are a combined 0-8, and barely needed any offense to do it. They'll need more than a fluke to beat the Chargers here.
Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee
This spread is lol. I know they did pretty good against Washington 2 weeks ago, but it was against Washington. Did anyone actually see them play against Jacksonville? And really, the Cowboys have been an overly hyped up team for the past 3 years. Plus they have Bledsoe, a perennial shit eater. I know its just the Titans, who suck, but Dallas simply isn't good. Oh and T.O. isn't even playing.
Arizona (-7) @ Atlanta
Atlanta looked awful Monday night. And that was against the Saints. Arizona is due for a decent game. Maybe Lienart can spark something if he does actually start. Besides, even if Atlanta wins, they never win big. Take the points.
New England (+6) @ Cincinnati
This is my first pick against the Pats in a long time. They haven't looked good all year, and lost pretty badly to Denver. Well Cincinnati is twice the team Denver is.
Jacksonville (-3) @ Washinton
This spread is puzzling as well. I mean why are they giving this much credit to Washington? They sucked-ass the first two games vs the average Vikings and Cowboys. Suddenly because they got an auto win in Houston they are a contender? Jacksonville has looked great in every game they've played. I know Portis is back, but the Jags D is a lot better than Houstons. This seems too obvious.
So if you want to win, probably do the opposite of that.
Regardless, I still think I'm giving up on live play (sans tournaments) for the rest of my life. I've never done overly well and have never really enjoyed it. My simple brain has been too brainwashed with so much useless SNG strategy that cash games are beyond my comprehension. At this point it's like trying to teach a Muslim the fine points of Christianity. It's just not going to happen.
Watching some of the sick amounts being taken down by the WCOOP winners makes me insanely jealous, especially when a lot of the SNG pros I play with are making the money and final tables. I mean, I have to have at least an average chance to final table a big buy-in event. My pushing knowledge alone should put me in the upper tier of donkament players. I have to believe that is true. And who knows, maybe I'm just one lucky day away from a huge 6-figure score.
That being said, I've been playing more MTT's of late. And to be honest, I'm getting ruined. I think it is partially because I'm trying to play SNGs and MTT's at the same time. Sure, on the surface they look the same, but they both have their separate skill sets. I have to gamble a lot less in SNGs. Since 33% of the field gets paid in SNGs, I can often times fold into respectable monies. But in MTT's, I know it's +EV to play for the final table, not just to cash. Thats something I don't think my simple brain has fully comprehended yet, as I generally end up playing my standard SNG game. And also it is hard to determine at first sight whether or not I'm playing a MTT or SNG by just looking at it. So I think if I ever get into MTT's more, I'll play only high buy-in events and try to concentrate soley on them.
I also finally hit Supernova on Stars. Something that any respectable SNG player has done months ago, so its really not that big of a deal. It is simply a reminder that I'm a slacker. But still, it's an improvement, even though I still have no clue what I'm doing with my 200k FPPs.
I really need to lay off on the Football betting. Each week goes the same. I make some picks online for X amount of dollars. Lose. Make more picks on the remaining games for Y amount of dollars (where Y = 2X). Lose, and reload sports account.
It's pretty funny how quickly my "sure" picks turn to shit each and every week. Take this week for example. I was beyond positive that Chicago and Carolina were going to cover, and cover well. Both of them won their games, but by 1 point less than the spread required. Fuck me. Are the odds makers really that fucking good?
I also think I'm done putting any faith in the Patriots and the Steelers for the rest of the season. They just don't seem to be the same teams that they've been in the past. Actually, I've never felt too strongly about the Steelers since the Roethlisberger era started. And week after week throughout the past 2 years I've been punished. So I finally start believe the "hype" and it now looks like they've been eating pieces of shit for breakfast. And the Pats, they've looked like shit-eaters all year too, narrowly beating the hapless bills and jets, and getting stoned in Denver. So much for making up last years loss. I suspect the odds makers will be doing the same in the next few weeks.
This week there looks to be some juicy bets to be made as well, but I'm sure I'll lose regardless. I've always been a non believer in the home team advantage theory, which will reflect in my picks I'm sure (and maybe why I lose). Here are the picks I like this week: (my pick in bold)
Indianapolis (-9) @ New York Jets
How the Jets are only getting 9 here is beyond me. I mean, last week the Jags got 7 and they are a way better team.
San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore
People are really loving the "new look" Ravens here. But they really haven't shown much of anything, despite being 3-0. I mean, they've beaten the Buccs, Raiders and Browns, who are a combined 0-8, and barely needed any offense to do it. They'll need more than a fluke to beat the Chargers here.
Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee
This spread is lol. I know they did pretty good against Washington 2 weeks ago, but it was against Washington. Did anyone actually see them play against Jacksonville? And really, the Cowboys have been an overly hyped up team for the past 3 years. Plus they have Bledsoe, a perennial shit eater. I know its just the Titans, who suck, but Dallas simply isn't good. Oh and T.O. isn't even playing.
Arizona (-7) @ Atlanta
Atlanta looked awful Monday night. And that was against the Saints. Arizona is due for a decent game. Maybe Lienart can spark something if he does actually start. Besides, even if Atlanta wins, they never win big. Take the points.
New England (+6) @ Cincinnati
This is my first pick against the Pats in a long time. They haven't looked good all year, and lost pretty badly to Denver. Well Cincinnati is twice the team Denver is.
Jacksonville (-3) @ Washinton
This spread is puzzling as well. I mean why are they giving this much credit to Washington? They sucked-ass the first two games vs the average Vikings and Cowboys. Suddenly because they got an auto win in Houston they are a contender? Jacksonville has looked great in every game they've played. I know Portis is back, but the Jags D is a lot better than Houstons. This seems too obvious.
So if you want to win, probably do the opposite of that.
posted by RikkiDee at 12:38 AM
3 Comments:
I'm loading up on San Diego. The only thing that scares me is that the line opened at -3 and I jumped on it there, assuming that it'd be -5 by the time the game kicked off. Don't like seeing it move the other way, especially off -3, but I think Baltimore is being given way too much credit here.
You are a true optimist Dee!...lol
u should ask be bro I got 8 last week YEEAAA
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