Delayed continuation bets
Alright, I'll try a strategy post. Beware.
This situation applies pretty much only in tournaments, and basically only when you have between 15-30 BBs. You raise with a legitimate raising hand, but not a powerhouse, something like AQ or 99 and you get a caller, preferably from the blinds. It's not as applicable if you get a caller from behind, leaving you out of position.
Now, the flop comes with three cards, none of which particularly help you. The "standard" play here if they check to you is to make a continuation bet, one between 1/2 and 3/4ths pot size, hoping your opponent didn't connect and you can take the pot down. This is thoroughly discussed in Harrington on Hold'Em and I think pretty much every poker player knows what it is.
Now because betting when checked to here is so standard, it's almost become standard for your opponent to call any bet on the flop with anything, or perhaps even raise. They will call with any pocket pair, any ace, any draw. Basically they will only fold hands that you are beating badly right now. So why bet?
Now, flop texture here is very important. If you have 99 and the flop is 852 rainbow, I'd make a bet for value, seeing that you aren't going to fold out A5 or 33 anyways. Similarly if you have AQ and the flop is QT6, you should probably bet. But with anything else, try taking a free card.
You see, the flop has become the "practice" round. Any bet on the flop gets little to no respect. Your opponents are basically saying, "yea bet and I call, lets see what you really got on the turn". When you check, some opponents are thrown off. Now there is only 1 more card to come and they are running out of time to define their hands.
By checking the flop, you give yourself a free card, control the pot size, and an additional shot to take down the pot on the turn if they check to you again (usually a big sign of weakness). And if you want to get really tricky, if they bet out on the turn, you can reraise them, representing a huge hand. Don't overuse that though, as most fish don't understand what you are trying to represent.
Another advantage of waiting untill the turn to bet is that players with draws will be less likely to make a move at the pot with only 1 card to come. I know personally that if I have a flush draw on the flop, and plan to check raise the preflop raiser all in, when they don't bet I'm a little unsure of what to do. Check raising a draw on the flop is pretty standard, but check raising the turn is not. If you throw out a pot sized bet on the turn when they've checked to you twice, they may fold their draw that they would have called/raised on the flop.
Some skeptical people may read this and think, "yo dumbass, if you check the flop, your opponent will see that as an invitation to steal the pot LOLZ!". And to a certain extent, you are right, opponents will be more likely to bet the turn once you check the flop. But keep in mind, if all you are holding is a whiffed AQ or a 99 with 2 overcards out there, your hand has a decent chance of being beaten anyways. And you could always, you know, play poker and call their turn bet if you think they are trying to steal. Don't give your opponents too much credit.
Another key aspect with all this is stack sizes and pot control. In a cash game, a continuation bet only represents a small percentage of your stack, so even if they call, you aren't going to be pot committed. But when you have 15-20BB and the pot is 6-7BB, its a whole different game. A c-bet sometimes will even pot commit you, something you definitely don't want to do in a tournament with a marginal hand. By checking the flop, you've taken away one round of betting, which means less chips in the pot. It goes back to the old poker adage, play big pots with big hands, small pots with small ones. And in a SNG espeically, your stack is all you have. You need to preserve every last bit of fold equity for the late rounds. Don't go throwing it away on mindless continuation bets.
Basically what I'm getting at is that if you do a regular continuation bet and get called, you have zero information other than they don't have absolutely nothing. So if you are betting with a weak/marginal hand and getting no information from said bet, then there may not be much of a point in doing it.
Thoughts?
This situation applies pretty much only in tournaments, and basically only when you have between 15-30 BBs. You raise with a legitimate raising hand, but not a powerhouse, something like AQ or 99 and you get a caller, preferably from the blinds. It's not as applicable if you get a caller from behind, leaving you out of position.
Now, the flop comes with three cards, none of which particularly help you. The "standard" play here if they check to you is to make a continuation bet, one between 1/2 and 3/4ths pot size, hoping your opponent didn't connect and you can take the pot down. This is thoroughly discussed in Harrington on Hold'Em and I think pretty much every poker player knows what it is.
Now because betting when checked to here is so standard, it's almost become standard for your opponent to call any bet on the flop with anything, or perhaps even raise. They will call with any pocket pair, any ace, any draw. Basically they will only fold hands that you are beating badly right now. So why bet?
Now, flop texture here is very important. If you have 99 and the flop is 852 rainbow, I'd make a bet for value, seeing that you aren't going to fold out A5 or 33 anyways. Similarly if you have AQ and the flop is QT6, you should probably bet. But with anything else, try taking a free card.
You see, the flop has become the "practice" round. Any bet on the flop gets little to no respect. Your opponents are basically saying, "yea bet and I call, lets see what you really got on the turn". When you check, some opponents are thrown off. Now there is only 1 more card to come and they are running out of time to define their hands.
By checking the flop, you give yourself a free card, control the pot size, and an additional shot to take down the pot on the turn if they check to you again (usually a big sign of weakness). And if you want to get really tricky, if they bet out on the turn, you can reraise them, representing a huge hand. Don't overuse that though, as most fish don't understand what you are trying to represent.
Another advantage of waiting untill the turn to bet is that players with draws will be less likely to make a move at the pot with only 1 card to come. I know personally that if I have a flush draw on the flop, and plan to check raise the preflop raiser all in, when they don't bet I'm a little unsure of what to do. Check raising a draw on the flop is pretty standard, but check raising the turn is not. If you throw out a pot sized bet on the turn when they've checked to you twice, they may fold their draw that they would have called/raised on the flop.
Some skeptical people may read this and think, "yo dumbass, if you check the flop, your opponent will see that as an invitation to steal the pot LOLZ!". And to a certain extent, you are right, opponents will be more likely to bet the turn once you check the flop. But keep in mind, if all you are holding is a whiffed AQ or a 99 with 2 overcards out there, your hand has a decent chance of being beaten anyways. And you could always, you know, play poker and call their turn bet if you think they are trying to steal. Don't give your opponents too much credit.
Another key aspect with all this is stack sizes and pot control. In a cash game, a continuation bet only represents a small percentage of your stack, so even if they call, you aren't going to be pot committed. But when you have 15-20BB and the pot is 6-7BB, its a whole different game. A c-bet sometimes will even pot commit you, something you definitely don't want to do in a tournament with a marginal hand. By checking the flop, you've taken away one round of betting, which means less chips in the pot. It goes back to the old poker adage, play big pots with big hands, small pots with small ones. And in a SNG espeically, your stack is all you have. You need to preserve every last bit of fold equity for the late rounds. Don't go throwing it away on mindless continuation bets.
Basically what I'm getting at is that if you do a regular continuation bet and get called, you have zero information other than they don't have absolutely nothing. So if you are betting with a weak/marginal hand and getting no information from said bet, then there may not be much of a point in doing it.
Thoughts?
posted by RikkiDee at 1:47 PM
3 Comments:
You know all of this, but I think the biggest danger of checking on the flop and avoiding the continuation bet is that even if you whiff on the flop you very often still have the best hand.
Using you example of raising with AQ and whiffing on the flop, if donkeys didn't routinely call with hands like K10s, KJo, A7s, then I could get behind the idea of avoiding the continuation bet a goodly percentage of the time. But if you're raising with semi-strong hands, more often than not your hand is still best if the flop is a seemingly harmless one that likely didn't help either of you. People routinely call with all sorts of crap, especially from the blinds.
Couple that fact with the danger of giving free cards and add a dash of fold equity and I think it's probably better just to routinely lump the continuation bet out there if checked to.
I think u failed to talk more about stack sizes, and to me this is the most important sometimes the 'only' info on your oppenents. but over all if you raising with premo hands your often already ahead on the flop regardless if you hit or miss, so like scurvy said I think u have to throw out a good bet to see where u are, as checking on the flop gives you absolutly zero information on wheather your hand it ahead or behind.
now u said "if you do a regular continuation bet and get called, you have zero information other than they don't have absolutely nothing" well in my book this is information, by looking at the texture you can one, either put them on a draw, two, put them on a monster, and three put them on a weak pair that they can't fold or a low pp (a bluff catcher).
I like to get information from how fast they call my c-bet. I think when someone insta calls my c-bet they have something they can't fold and something they can't raise, (draw or a low pair or low pp). The times when someone actually thinks about what to do i.e. it takes them 20-40 seconds to call... more often then not they have a monster and I give up the hand.
now I know this would be hard for u rikkidee b/c u play so many tables but open 3-4 MTTS and pay attention to how fast your oppenent acts, b/c this is somthing that I use alot and it really does help.
I agree that there is still a lot of merit in the standard continuation bet. But lately I've been looking at my stats for the mid levels and I've been losing money on the AJ+ 88-TT style hands. Its definitely a leak in my game and I'm trying to correct it.
The idea behind a continuation bet is that if you bet half the pot, and win just once out of three times then you make a profit. Seems like a solid plan, but for me, it just seems like its been a losing proposition.
I guess it all depends on the type of opponent you are up against. If they are the type to call any raise with any piece of trash from the blinds and then call any bet on the flop, I suppose a c-bet is actually a value bet most of the time. But against a tighter opponent, who is probably going to call with decent pairs and aces, I'm less sure that a c-bet is the best plan.
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