Luck and Success

I've been thinking a lot lately about success in life. Not just success I suppose, but how it is obtained and maintained.

A common theme in a lot of successful people's life is that they took a risk early on in life and it paid off. You don't hear much about the guy who risked it all and went busto, but clearly it happens at a much higher frequency.

And it doesn't really mater what facet of sucess you are talking about, it always boils down to the same formula. Man has idea -> Man risks a life of steady income to pursue idea -> Man is a success. It's a pretty commonly known conception that most people at least consider during their life. Most realize it, but still choose the "safe" life - mostly due to risk aversion but also due to laziness and lack of ability.

It also is reflected in poker perfectly, although I didn't realize it at first.

You see, poker is merely a game of skill and luck. Those who take their shots can be successful, but in all likelihood will go busto. Those who take their shots and do well are hailed as poker greats in the community, while the citizens of bustoville are laughed at. Both communities had the same idea and drive, the only difference being one succeeded and one didn't. And I think this is pretty indicative of the landscape of society in general. Poker once again mirrors real life.

But what gets me thinking, with my knowledge of poker now, is that the difference between a truly successful poker player and your average card carrying member of the busto club can be at times simply a matter of luck. This is especially true in tournaments, where the huge fields and prize pools generated can give the winner a massive bankroll and confidence boost, to which he can parlay into a successful poker career. Or maybe it was simply a matter of a shot taken at a higher limit. Take a 1/2 NL player putting his bankroll on the line to sit at a soft 25/50 NL game. One good run there could change his life to give him the BR to play higher and the confidence to boot.

I'm not saying that just because these players got lucky at one time makes them any less skilled or worthy of their high limit status. I think that with many players there is the potential to be great, and maybe it just takes one lucky streak to realize it. Maintaining it is the next thing of course, and those who can clearly were ready to play anyways. But not everyone gets that opportunity to realize their potential. Multitable tournaments are especially bad indicators as there is just a ridiculous amount of luck involved. Sure the best players will win in the long run, but it really can take just one big win to give one that opportunity to succeed. I'm sure there are thousands of great tournament players who are capable of winning but just haven't yet and may give up. There simply is no discernible difference between some high level players and some low level ones, other than the amount of luck that has been bestowed upon them to get them to where they are.

And I think that rings true in real life as well. You look at successful entrepreneurs and a lot of the time they merely are a result of a good idea and a lot of luck to get them to where they are. I'm sure many people go broke chasing the American dream just like many go broke playing poker.

There is a quote by Bill Gates that says:

"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose"

And I think that is a pretty good indication that luck is a huge factor in all aspects of life. Once successful, its probably hard to think that your success is due to anything but your intellect and drive. And, while intellect and drive are definitely the building blocks for success, luck cannot be ignored.

I just finished the autobiography of my hero Bruce Campbell. He is the actor of Evil Dead/Army of Darkness fame. He is not an "A-list" actor but he is definitely successful. Many times in the book he eludes to how much a factor luck was in getting his career off the ground. At one point he had every penny he owned, plus a ton of investors money tied up in their first movie (Evil Dead) and if it hadn't succeeded then he probably would have given up the acting gig. He also points out that actors as products for production are basically homogeneous. There honestly isn't that much of a tangible difference between one actor and another, which is why so many are unemployed waiters. Luck is the key to success in Hollywood.

But the question remains, is it luck that makes a successful person or is it drive? A great poker player may be destined to succeed no matter what route he takes, as his superior skill will take him to the high stakes games whether or not he grinds it out or gets lucky and wins a big tournament. For that player it is just a matter of time. And the same is true in the real world. Some people are so driven and have such great ideas that there is simply no way that any amount of bad luck will keep them from succeeding. But these cases I imagine are the minority. The rest of the world needs a little bit of luck and opportunity to succeed.

It's almost a depressing thought for me. I've always had the ambitions to one day be totally self sufficient. To think that its possible to fail regardless of my ideas or effort, seems rather unfair. But that is obviously life, and balancing risk is inherent in every decision we make.

Now if I could just win a big ass tournament and proclaim myself a poker god, I can forget that this post ever happened.