Sunday, January 28, 2007

Can't stop the suck

Trying to figure out if you suck at poker is really hard. You can't even rely on results without a ridiculous sample size. I've hit the 10k hand mark in my cash game adventure and I'm rocking along at a super-star like 1.7bb/100. So theres some evidence of suck.

I still feel as though I'm better than at least the average player, and can hold my own vs the regulars. But obviously everyone thinks they are better than the average player, so really thats not evidence. Its actually pretty depressing, after playing poker for 2 years to not even be able to beat 1/2 NL. I'm still grasping to the sample size evidence. I hope its just variance.

Here are some hands. With most of them I think the decisions are super-marginal and could go either way and not make that much of a difference, but I could be wrong.

Seat 1: king10clubs ($155.55 in chips)
Seat 2: Soldier ($115.40 in chips)
Seat 3: RikkiDee ($213.40 in chips)
Seat 4: skeerow16 ($63.25 in chips)
Seat 5: tahoe111 ($75.80 in chips)
Soldier: posts small blind $1
RikkiDee: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Ac As]
skeerow16: folds
tahoe111: calls $2
king10clubs: raises $8 to $10
Soldier: folds
RikkiDee: raises $20 to $30
tahoe111: folds
king10clubs: calls $20
*** FLOP *** [5c 8s 2s]
RikkiDee: bets $46
king10clubs: calls $46
*** TURN *** [5c 8s 2s] [Th]
RikkiDee: checks
king10clubs: checks
*** RIVER *** [5c 8s 2s Th] [Kh]
RikkiDee: bets $137.40 and is all-in
king10clubs: folds

My opponent here is playing a standard TAG game, and playing 8 tables at a time. I had reraised him a few times already and he had folded them all. By his preflop flat call and flop call, I'm fairly certain he has a pair. Now, what to do on the turn? Will he give me credit for having aces? Or was he just calling on the flop to see if I fired again on the turn? I really am not sure how to extract here. If he is just floating, then he probably won't bet the turn unless he has absolutely nothing or a set. Of course the river brings a King, making it even more likely that his pair is beat if I have AK.

Seat 1: timcrook ($198.85 in chips)
Seat 2: gamblegoddes ($335.90 in chips)
Seat 3: HHHthegame88 ($200 in chips)
Seat 4: RikkiDee ($200 in chips)
Seat 5: EZAWACKI888 ($322.50 in chips)
Seat 6: m@tze ($60.40 in chips)
timcrook: posts small blind $1
gamblegoddes: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Kh As]
HHHthegame88: folds
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
EZAWACKI888: folds
m@tze: folds
timcrook: calls $7
gamblegoddes: folds
*** FLOP *** [8s Ad 8c]
timcrook: bets $10
RikkiDee: calls $10
*** TURN *** [8s Ad 8c] [Qh]
timcrook: bets $20
RikkiDee: calls $20
*** RIVER *** [8s Ad 8c Qh] [2h]
timcrook: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
timcrook: shows [Ac Js] (two pair, Aces and Eights)
RikkiDee: shows [Kh As] (two pair, Aces and Eights - King kicker)

My opponent here is a pretty much a fish. He calls a lot and bets when he thinks his hand is good. Most of the time, if someone bets into me and I'm the preflop raiser, I autoreraise with or without a hand. But when I have AK on an A88 flop, I don't see much value in raising. He'll either call the raise and check/fold the turn, or even fold to my raise, unless for some reason he has an 8. The best case scenario for me is that he calls all raises and bets with a worse ace, but it takes a pretty shitty player to do that, and in this case, with AJ, he probably would have, but I had to be at least a little concerned with AQ or an 8. Basically I think that if I raise an A88 flop, I'm turning my hand face up, allowing him to play perfectly. But maybe I'm giving bad players too much credit. Oh and I probably should have value bet that river as he is most likely firing again if he has me.

Seat 1: l0l3rsk8z ($193.55 in chips)
Seat 2: JeffMcShan ($222.40 in chips)
Seat 3: SALZHERZ ($506.65 in chips)
Seat 4: curtains ($198 in chips)
Seat 5: mills220 ($189.20 in chips)
Seat 6: RikkiDee ($200 in chips)
curtains: posts small blind $1
mills220: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Ah Jh]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
l0l3rsk8z: folds
JeffMcShan: folds
SALZHERZ: calls $8
curtains: calls $7
mills220: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [7d 3s Qh]
curtains: checks
mills220: checks
RikkiDee: checks
SALZHERZ: checks
*** TURN *** [7d 3s Qh] [4h]
curtains: bets $24
mills220: folds
RikkiDee: calls $24
SALZHERZ: folds
*** RIVER *** [7d 3s Qh 4h] [8s]
curtains: checks
RikkiDee: checks

Here I made a pretty passive/stupid play. I simply can't c-bet this flop with that many players. But when my opponent, who is a good multitabler, bets out, I know I have at the very least 9 outs, and a decent chance that my ace or even jack is live. This is where I get confused tho. Should I raise? He will fold all but a set to a raise I think, and a set he is pushing. The second question, should I bluff this river? He is almost 100% sure to bet this river with a set, so he probably has something like KQ here. Therefore, is he just check/calling any bet? What if I push? What am I representing to him with a bet here? Probably exactly what I have, a busted flush draw. And there is almost zero chance my ace is good, so if I want this pot, I have to bet. But it probably isn't worth it in the long run. I think it may be best to reraise this turn, hoping he doesn't have a set, and hopefully getting him to lay down his pair to my "obvious" set.

Seat 1: king10clubs ($197 in chips)
Seat 2: Soldier ($117 in chips)
Seat 3: RikkiDee ($289.40 in chips)
Seat 4: skeerow16 ($59.45 in chips)
Seat 5: tahoe111 ($94.15 in chips)
Seat 6: jaymzisking ($208.20 in chips)
Soldier: posts small blind $1
RikkiDee: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [6s 6c]
skeerow16: calls $2
tahoe111: folds
jaymzisking: raises $6 to $8
king10clubs: folds
Soldier: calls $7
RikkiDee: calls $6
skeerow16: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [6h 4s 5d]
Soldier: checks
RikkiDee: checks
skeerow16: bets $8
jaymzisking: raises $16 to $24
Soldier: folds
RikkiDee: raises $257.40 to $281.40 and is all-in
skeerow16: folds
jaymzisking: folds
RikkiDee collected $85 from pot

Again, just a problem with extraction. The first bet is from a short stacked donk and the raise is from a solid multitabler. He most likely has an overpair here with that raise, but is almost never going to call my push here without a set himself. I figured I'd get him out of the pot with this raise but didn't care because I was pretty sure the short stack was coming along. Its possible to lead this flop maybe, get a reraise from the original reraiser and 3 bet him, but again, he'll know I have a set and fold (probably). Without any history of me bluffing vs him, he should give me credit for a set here. The only thing I can think of is flat calling his flop reraise and hopefully check-raising the turn, but even that is pretty unlikely. Plus that flop is not exactly safe.

Dealt to RikkiDee [Jh Js]
ragamuffin44: folds
ragamuffin44 leaves the table
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
doddiebeadle: calls $8
Stevejo: folds
sandiego10: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3s 3c]
RikkiDee: checks
doddiebeadle: checks
*** TURN *** [Jc 3s 3c] [Ad]
RikkiDee: bets $12
doddiebeadle: folds

I just hate when that ace comes. I guess I should bet the flop. Its a pretty safe flop for a pair, but anything else is going to fold.

Seat 1: xxFREAKxx ($187.85 in chips)
Seat 2: fireponyx ($64.20 in chips)
Seat 3: ragamuffin44 ($200 in chips)
Seat 4: RikkiDee ($198.75 in chips)
Seat 5: doddiebeadle ($268.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Stevejo ($76.10 in chips)
fireponyx: posts small blind $1
ragamuffin44: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Th Tc]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
doddiebeadle: folds
Stevejo: calls $8
xxFREAKxx: folds
fireponyx: folds
ragamuffin44: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [5c Ts 9c]
ragamuffin44: checks
RikkiDee: bets $20
Stevejo: calls $20
ragamuffin44: folds
*** TURN *** [5c Ts 9c] [9h]
RikkiDee: bets $20
Stevejo: calls $20
*** RIVER *** [5c Ts 9c 9h] [7d]
RikkiDee: bets $32
Stevejo: calls $28.10 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [Th Tc] (a full house, Tens full of Nines)
Stevejo: shows [9s 9d] (four of a kind, Nines)
Stevejo collected $158.20 from pot

Whatever

Dealt to RikkiDee [8s 9s]
typefrancis leaves the table
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
doddiebeadle: folds
xxFREAKxx: calls $7
Yello man: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 2d 8h]
xxFREAKxx: checks
RikkiDee: bets $12
xxFREAKxx: calls $12
*** TURN *** [3h 2d 8h] [Qd]
xxFREAKxx: checks
fireponyx joins the table at seat #2
RikkiDee: checks
*** RIVER *** [3h 2d 8h Qd] [4d]
xxFREAKxx: bets $10
RikkiDee: calls $10
*** SHOW DOWN ***
xxFREAKxx: shows [Th Tc] (a pair of Tens)
RikkiDee: mucks hand

Should I be paying these off? With that small bet, there is almost no chance of him bluffing here, and even if I read him as weak, what would a reraise by me represent here? Again, maybe I'm giving my opponents too much credit but getting called here sucks.

Seat 1: sandiego10 ($191 in chips)
Seat 2: Luran ($54.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Avaladze ($75 in chips)
Seat 4: RikkiDee ($205.05 in chips)
Seat 5: smutgremlin ($195 in chips)
Seat 6: Stevejo ($141.85 in chips)
Luran: posts small blind $1
Avaladze: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Th Tc]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
smutgremlin: folds
Stevejo: folds
sandiego10: folds
Luran: calls $7
Avaladze: folds
*** FLOP *** [4h 4d 6h]
Luran: checks
RikkiDee: bets $12
Luran: calls $12
*** TURN *** [4h 4d 6h] [Ad]
Luran: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** RIVER *** [4h 4d 6h Ad] [Qc]
Luran: bets $14
RikkiDee: folds
Luran collected $39.95 from pot

So theres a hand just like the 89s one where I don't pay it off. I feel stupid both times.

Dealt to RikkiDee [8s 8h]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
doddiebeadle: folds
Stevejo: calls $8
sandiego10: folds
Luran: folds
Avaladze: folds
*** FLOP *** [4d 5s 9d]
RikkiDee: bets $14
Stevejo: calls $14
*** TURN *** [4d 5s 9d] [3d]
RikkiDee: checks
Stevejo: bets $10
RikkiDee: folds

I know, seems ridiculously weak. But this player was like 45/1 and never ever bet. I just didn't see him betting with anything that I beat. Like seriously, is he floating me with like AQ and then betting $10 when checked to? I guess its possible but for someone who never bets, it seems unlikely.

Seat 1: sgunns ($234.30 in chips)
Seat 2: hirscheybar ($237.80 in chips)
Seat 3: SALZHERZ ($166.65 in chips)
Seat 4: firasfn ($30.85 in chips)
Seat 5: mills220 ($221.15 in chips)
Seat 6: RikkiDee ($213.75 in chips)
hirscheybar: posts small blind $1
SALZHERZ: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [9s 9h]
firasfn: calls $2
mills220: calls $2
RikkiDee: raises $10 to $12
sgunns: folds
hirscheybar: raises $16 to $28
SALZHERZ: folds
firasfn: folds
mills220: folds
RikkiDee: calls $16
*** FLOP *** [2c 7d 8s]
hirscheybar: bets $38
RikkiDee: calls $38
*** TURN *** [2c 7d 8s] [3s]
hirscheybar: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** RIVER *** [2c 7d 8s 3s] [Td]
hirscheybar: bets $80
RikkiDee: folds
hirscheybar collected $135 from pot
hirscheybar: doesn't show hand

Totally lost in what to do here. I raise a lot in this situation with a ton of shitty hands, so when a multitabling good player reraises me from the blinds, do I immediately have to give him credit for TT+? Do I raise that flop? Bet the turn? Call the river? I really have no fucking clue. Probably fold the flop? Seems like if I'm folding the flop I should be folding to his reraise preflop.

Dealt to RikkiDee [9h 9c]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
hirscheybar: raises $16 to $24
SALZHERZ: folds
firasfn: folds
RikkiDee: calls $16
*** FLOP *** [5d 8h Jh]
RikkiDee: checks
hirscheybar: bets $34
mills220 has returned
RikkiDee: calls $34
*** TURN *** [5d 8h Jh] [Kh]
RikkiDee: checks
hirscheybar: checks
*** RIVER *** [5d 8h Jh Kh] [8c]
RikkiDee: checks
hirscheybar: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [9h 9c] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
hirscheybar: shows [Kd As] (two pair, Kings and Eights)

Same opponent. Fold preflop?

Seat 1: Stallionkid ($767.30 in chips)
Seat 2: onekilla ($105 in chips)
Seat 3: RikkiDee ($241.75 in chips)
Seat 4: l0l3rsk8z ($262.90 in chips)
Seat 5: crispy4505 ($588.35 in chips)
Seat 6: twelver1232 ($203 in chips)
RikkiDee: posts small blind $1
l0l3rsk8z: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [7h 7d]
crispy4505: folds
twelver1232: folds
Stallionkid: folds
onekilla: folds
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
l0l3rsk8z: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [3h 7s 3d]
RikkiDee: bets $12
l0l3rsk8z: calls $12
*** TURN *** [3h 7s 3d] [8c]
RikkiDee: checks
l0l3rsk8z: checks
*** RIVER *** [3h 7s 3d 8c] [Ad]
RikkiDee: checks
l0l3rsk8z: bets $30
RikkiDee: raises $70 to $100
l0l3rsk8z: raises $142.90 to $242.90 and is all-in
RikkiDee: calls $121.75 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
l0l3rsk8z: shows [3c 3s] (four of a kind, Threes)

This one almost didn't get all in. Heres my explanation. If I bet this flop he'll never put me on sevens full. He will probably call my flop bet with any pair, any ace, or even worse sometimes. I figure, he is probably going to bet when checked to with whatever hand he has, as this is a blind vs blind battle. I figured that his check meant he just had an ace and felt it may be good, which is why I checked the river. Probably a bad long run play but I like checking sometimes with the "nuts" on the river if I know my opponent is aggressive. Whatever. Gay.

Dealt to RikkiDee [Ad Qc]
twelver1232: folds
mcnabulous5: folds
onekilla: folds
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
claudej50: calls $7
crispy4505: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Ac 2s 7s]
claudej50: checks
crispy4505: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** TURN *** [Ac 2s 7s] [4d]
claudej50: checks
crispy4505: bets $18
RikkiDee: calls $18
claudej50: folds
*** RIVER *** [Ac 2s 7s 4d] [9s]
crispy4505: bets $42
RikkiDee: calls $42
*** SHOW DOWN ***
crispy4505: shows [Ts 8s] (a flush, Ten high)

Another wierd play by me. I generally autobet the flop here, but I had been playing on this table for a few hours and I always autobet. So I tried something different and I get screwed. Bad river call for sure tho, I'm never good. You just get in that mindset that, "I checked the flop, no way he knows I'm this strong" and call for no other reason.

Dealt to RikkiDee [Kd Kh]
gamblegoddes: folds
1kingme123: folds
damon135: folds
RikkiDee: raises $5 to $7
Collinari: calls $6
CrabClaws: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c Kc 6d]
Collinari: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** TURN *** [3c Kc 6d] [Qs]
Collinari: bets $6
RikkiDee: raises $14 to $20
Collinari: calls $14
*** RIVER *** [3c Kc 6d Qs] [4d]
Collinari: checks
RikkiDee: bets $170.30 and is all-in
Collinari: calls $74.30 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [Kd Kh] (three of a kind, Kings)
Collinari: mucks hand
Seat 6: Collinari (small blind) mucked [5d 5s]

Sometimes slowplaying actually works out.

Dealt to RikkiDee [7s 7h]
RikkiDee: raises $6 to $8
gezuz: folds
dreieier: folds
crispy4505: folds
garbage1340: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Ah 7c 8s]
garbage1340: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** TURN *** [Ah 7c 8s] [Qh]
garbage1340: checks
RikkiDee: bets $10
garbage1340: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [Ah 7c 8s Qh] [Td]
garbage1340: checks
RikkiDee: bets $432.35 and is all-in
garbage1340: calls $44.90 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [7s 7h] (three of a kind, Sevens)
garbage1340: mucks hand
Seat 3: garbage1340 (big blind) mucked [Qc Th]

Dealt to RikkiDee [Qc 8c]
crispy4505: folds
garbage1340: folds
RikkiDee: raises $5 to $7
gezuz: folds
dreieier: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [Qd 7d 2h]
dreieier: checks
RikkiDee: checks
*** TURN *** [Qd 7d 2h] [9s]
dreieier: bets $11
RikkiDee: calls $11
*** RIVER *** [Qd 7d 2h 9s] [4h]
dreieier: checks
RikkiDee: bets $20
dreieier: calls $20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [Qc 8c] (a pair of Queens)
dreieier: mucks hand

Value betting gives me a serious boner.

Ok thats enough hands. Its getting ridiculous. I still think that you can make arguments either way for most if not all of these hands. It generally has to do with the ebb and flow of the game. There are so many intangible feelings that you get during the course of action that the hand histories don't do it justice.



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