Wednesday, September 03, 2008

September Goals and Football Gibbrish

The last 3 months have basically been a write off. I've been playing lower stakes, and playing less which can only lead to failure. I'm not really sure what caused my lack of play but I do know I am back now.

My goals for September are pretty much standard for what a full time poker player should be playing.

Goal 1: Play 4 hours a day, which equates to 2000 hands each day playing 5 tables on party.
Goal 2: Goes hand in hand with goal 1 - play 40k hands.
Goal 3: Maintain a +5ptbb/100 winrate

These are not lavish unreasonable goals but basically I just need to get back on track. March and April of this year were banner months for me and there was no reason I should have let off. I was days away from taking a shot at 5/10 and now I have barely been playing 2/4. Even if I achieve my goals this month I won't be able to take a shot, but I will be primed to do so if I continue through October. Baby steps here.

In other news, I'm ridiculously psyched for this upcoming NFL season. To be honest I hadn't thought much about football since the disaster that was 18-1, but I'm definitely ready to be hurt again. The Pats look good again this year, although not nearly as good as last year. I still think they are probably Superbowl favorites, but its unlikely they will be nearly as dominant. Last year their defense was a little inflated due to every opponent having to play from behind. This year, their defense will be exposed. Their secondary and linebackers are a joke. With the exception of first round draft Jarod Mayo and Adalius Thomas at LB, they have virtually no unstable positions. Vrabel, Bruschi and Harrison are way past their primes. Rodney Harrison is especially a joke. Last year he spent more time hitting players after the play then during. He also choked hard on the infamous "helmet catch" that basically cost them the superbowl. I'm expecting them to get torched deep a lot. They did just pick up Deltha O'Neil at cb, and guys like Merriweather, Sanders and Andrews have had a year to improve and move up the depth chart, but I'm still not too confident. If the offense starts struggling, you may see some ugly 30 pt games put up on this defense.

But the offense likely won't struggle. They are essentially exactly the same team they were last year. They still have Moss, Welker, Maroney, Watson, Faulk, their entire pro-bowl offensive line and of course Brady. They did lose Stallworth, but he was an extremely small part of what they did last year. Gaffeney can easily fill his shoes. They also got Sammy Moris back, who last year had some dominant games at backup RB before getting injured. The only question mark is health. Welker has had some rib problems, and Brady missed every preseason game with undisclosed "foot" issues, but both say they will be playing the opener vs KC, so I'm not too worried, yet. If Brady goes down you can count on them missing the playoffs.

I also finally got in a meaningful fantasy league, something I had wanted to do for years but most of my friends weren't into football enough to do so. Our league has 12 people in it. I randomed first pick overall and of course picked Brady. In hindsight this was kind of a bad pick even though he is head and shoulders better than any #2 QB you can think of. The problem it left me with was not being able to grab a RB untill last pick of round 2. At this point essentially every decent starting RB was gone and I was left with the decision between Edgerin James, Thomas Jones, and Brandon Jacobs. I really hate James and feel that he is completely washed up and from watching the Giants last year in the playoffs it seems they have too many options at RB to take Jacobs as a starting RB, so I took Thomas Jones. He should have a solid year as the #1 back in the Jets offense. I think the Jets are actually going to be half decent this year, probably ending around 9-7.

My team looks like this:

QB: Brady
WR: Marques Colston
WR: Nate Burleson
WR: Chris Chambers
RB: Thomas Jones
RB: Michael Turner
TE: Benjamin Watson
Flex: Jonathan Stewart
BN: Chris Johnson
BN: Chris Perry
BN: Kurt Warner
BN: Isaac Bruce
BN: Antwaan Randle El
K: Mike Negent
Def: Baltimore

Now on paper there are definitely better teams in the league. But there is no team in the league with more potential for greatness than mine. Marques Colston is a stud and is going to put up huge numbers this year (which is also a contract year for him). Nate Burlesson looks like a wtf pick for #2 WR but if you look at Seattles depth chart, their other WR's Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are out for 5+ weeks each, so Burlesson becomes far and away Hasslebecks #1 option. For #3 WR I have a few interesting choices. I have Chambers penciled in at the moment but I really feel that Isassc Bruce has one last year in him - especially playing for Mike Martz in San Fran. Also Anwaan Randle El is expected to be a strong #2 in Washington behind the aging and small Santana Moss.

My RBs are the position with the most potential. My two starters, Jones and Turner are definitely not the strongest in the league, but with both being starting #1's I think they will get a lot of touches. My three backups, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johson and Chris Perry all have massive upsides. The first two, Stewart and Johnson will start the year at backup in Carolina and Tennessee, but both are first round draft picks and are expected to get a lot of touches and possibly take over the starting role. No chance I'm trading them. Chris Perry, a guy I had never heard of till last week just got the starting job in Cinicinatti after they cut Rudi Johnson. Now I'm sure he will split carries with Kenny Watson but I'm definitely going to keep my eye out on him to see what develops. The best part is I got Perry and Johnson in the 4th and 3rd last rounds, which are absolute steals.

The last 3, Kurt Warner, "random kicker" and Baltimore defense I'm happy with. I think I picked up Warner in the 5th last round, which is pretty suprising. I know its easy to hate on ol' Kurt but if you look at his numbers last year, 3400 yards, 27 TD 17 INT and considering he didn't even play the whole season, you can't deny he is a solid QB and probably should be a starter in a 12 man leauge. He has 2 pro bowl WR's and the Cardinals have just named him the starting QB for the season over Matt Lienart, who looks like he'll never be starting in the NFL at this point. I imagine some one who drafted a piece of shit like Farve, Hasselbeck or McNabb will be begging me for Warner later on. And for some reason I got Baltimore defense. I originally had Tennesse defense but someone ended up dropping Baltimore to free agents and I snapped them up.

So heres to a great NFL season where the Pats go 14-2 and I win my fantasy league.

Oh and poker, I should get to work on that.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dude, I like your blog and everything. You're a funny guy and seem quite likable. So don't take this the wrong way when I tell you- taking Brady with the #1 overall pick is beyond horrible. #6 is the earliest he should even be considered. With that said, good luck in your season and good luck with poker.

1:28 AM  
Blogger RikkiDee said...

heh i agree, I really fucked up with Brady as the 1st pick. I just knew I wanted him and had no chance to get him if I waited. really dumb fantasy football mistake.

1:25 PM  

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