Impending Doom Switch Alert

As I've been saying; I run goot since coming back from Vegas.


















Thats 21% ROI over 213 games. As they say in the poker world; unsustainable. Which leads me to my thought of the day.

I was strolling around in a mall this morning, waiting for the stores to open so I could buy some replacement wipers and headlights for my car. As I walked around, unshowered, hair a mess and wearing basically a sweat suit, I pondered for a moment how my life has become significantly altered since becoming a full time poker player. I observed the patrons in the mall, mostly workers of stores yet to open, and thought to myself how completely different my life is compared to the average person. They were meeting up with coworkers, drinking their coffees. Just a normal day. But a normal day for them is essentially the same as any other; struggling with the daily grind, working for the various man's.

Now, I have lived that life for a short period of time, so I have some vague understanding of the psyches of the average citizen in their position. As I walked by each person, their life flashed before my eyes. Each vision was the same - depressing and full of resentment. Now perhaps that is just my vision of what a regular working life is like, but it seemed to ring true in the faces that I saw. It was at that moment that I realized how satisfied I am with my "career" choice.

I honestly couldn't be happier. And even though the future is uncertain in numerous ways, I don't think I could be maximizing my utility any further. But this sense of satisfaction will almost certainly be short lived. Like any other long-term utility sacrificed for short-term it will almost certainly come back to me and ultimately make my life worse. But since I've survived with a generally narrow minded existence for my first 25 years, I think I can make it work. And who knows, maybe this poker thing won't end anytime soon and I'll continue moving up in stakes and be a millionaire in 5 years. A man can dream.

I know this may sound like a thinly veiled brag post, putting myself above the common working person, but that's not what my intentions are. People are rational maximizer's. They will consciously or unconsciously seek out the activity/job/vocation that maximizes their utility in comparison to any alternative. For the average person, despite days of bitterness towards the daily grind, they still have chosen said grind because it is their best option for satisfying their internal happiness equation. By choosing poker as my occupation, I have made a conscious decision that it will offer me the most by sacrificing the least. To me, going to work every day, dealing with obnoxious, mind numbing coworkers and tasks simply does not compute. For others, they must be able to deal with it better, and enjoy some aspects in order to get by. Sure they wish there were improvements, but all things considered, this is the best they can do. And for me, poker is the best I can do.

So there are my thoughts, dull and spelled out as clear as day. I suppose I could have summed that all up by saying; I'm pretty satisfied with my choices in life. Onto my next thought.

Getting back to the opening of the post, I've been running pretty good lately. Not exceptionally well, but definitely above the reasonable expectation. Which got me thinking, when is it going to turn around? And more importantly, why? I mean, I'm a pretty logical and rational person. And even though I play essentially the same game every day, making essentially the same decisions hour after hour, my win rate will inevitably go down. Through no fault of my own, I will start to lose. And I know that just like roulette, despite past results, I have the same expected value of results for the future. And even though my rational brain can accept it, my risk-averse, irrational side looks at the numbers and sees a variance ass kicking in the future. I know through history that my long-term "real" ROI is somewhere between 13-15%. And since I'm running at 21% for the month, a nice little run of 2% or worse is just around the corner. These two concepts my brain struggles with.

On one hand, I know each game is independent of one another. And therefore I theoretically can continue running at 21% indefinitely. But on the other, I know a downswing is coming and can only wonder why and how the math gods work things out the way they do. How is it going to happen? Is it going to be a random lapse in judgement? A bunch of cold-decks followed by some suckouts? It's an interesting notion to me, as I experience first hand the microcosm of factors that attribute to my overall long term ROI, whereas an outsider can simply look at my 4,500 games, see the trend and accept it based purely on mathematical principals.

I definitely need to stop staying up so late and over thinking my existence and put an end to these long fairly bland posts.

Why did I ever leave home?

Since getting back from the Vegas trip where I got ruined, I haven't lost a session yet online. Not only have I not lost, I've been running hot. Like 20% ROI at the 114s hot. Funny how things even out. I wonder if they have a name that describes that phenomenon.

Regardless, I still think I'm giving up on live play (sans tournaments) for the rest of my life. I've never done overly well and have never really enjoyed it. My simple brain has been too brainwashed with so much useless SNG strategy that cash games are beyond my comprehension. At this point it's like trying to teach a Muslim the fine points of Christianity. It's just not going to happen.

Watching some of the sick amounts being taken down by the WCOOP winners makes me insanely jealous, especially when a lot of the SNG pros I play with are making the money and final tables. I mean, I have to have at least an average chance to final table a big buy-in event. My pushing knowledge alone should put me in the upper tier of donkament players. I have to believe that is true. And who knows, maybe I'm just one lucky day away from a huge 6-figure score.

That being said, I've been playing more MTT's of late. And to be honest, I'm getting ruined. I think it is partially because I'm trying to play SNGs and MTT's at the same time. Sure, on the surface they look the same, but they both have their separate skill sets. I have to gamble a lot less in SNGs. Since 33% of the field gets paid in SNGs, I can often times fold into respectable monies. But in MTT's, I know it's +EV to play for the final table, not just to cash. Thats something I don't think my simple brain has fully comprehended yet, as I generally end up playing my standard SNG game. And also it is hard to determine at first sight whether or not I'm playing a MTT or SNG by just looking at it. So I think if I ever get into MTT's more, I'll play only high buy-in events and try to concentrate soley on them.

I also finally hit Supernova on Stars. Something that any respectable SNG player has done months ago, so its really not that big of a deal. It is simply a reminder that I'm a slacker. But still, it's an improvement, even though I still have no clue what I'm doing with my 200k FPPs.

I really need to lay off on the Football betting. Each week goes the same. I make some picks online for X amount of dollars. Lose. Make more picks on the remaining games for Y amount of dollars (where Y = 2X). Lose, and reload sports account.

It's pretty funny how quickly my "sure" picks turn to shit each and every week. Take this week for example. I was beyond positive that Chicago and Carolina were going to cover, and cover well. Both of them won their games, but by 1 point less than the spread required. Fuck me. Are the odds makers really that fucking good?

I also think I'm done putting any faith in the Patriots and the Steelers for the rest of the season. They just don't seem to be the same teams that they've been in the past. Actually, I've never felt too strongly about the Steelers since the Roethlisberger era started. And week after week throughout the past 2 years I've been punished. So I finally start believe the "hype" and it now looks like they've been eating pieces of shit for breakfast. And the Pats, they've looked like shit-eaters all year too, narrowly beating the hapless bills and jets, and getting stoned in Denver. So much for making up last years loss. I suspect the odds makers will be doing the same in the next few weeks.

This week there looks to be some juicy bets to be made as well, but I'm sure I'll lose regardless. I've always been a non believer in the home team advantage theory, which will reflect in my picks I'm sure (and maybe why I lose). Here are the picks I like this week: (my pick in bold)

Indianapolis (-9) @ New York Jets
How the Jets are only getting 9 here is beyond me. I mean, last week the Jags got 7 and they are a way better team.

San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore
People are really loving the "new look" Ravens here. But they really haven't shown much of anything, despite being 3-0. I mean, they've beaten the Buccs, Raiders and Browns, who are a combined 0-8, and barely needed any offense to do it. They'll need more than a fluke to beat the Chargers here.

Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee
This spread is lol. I know they did pretty good against Washington 2 weeks ago, but it was against Washington. Did anyone actually see them play against Jacksonville? And really, the Cowboys have been an overly hyped up team for the past 3 years. Plus they have Bledsoe, a perennial shit eater. I know its just the Titans, who suck, but Dallas simply isn't good. Oh and T.O. isn't even playing.

Arizona (-7) @ Atlanta
Atlanta looked awful Monday night. And that was against the Saints. Arizona is due for a decent game. Maybe Lienart can spark something if he does actually start. Besides, even if Atlanta wins, they never win big. Take the points.

New England (+6) @ Cincinnati
This is my first pick against the Pats in a long time. They haven't looked good all year, and lost pretty badly to Denver. Well Cincinnati is twice the team Denver is.

Jacksonville (-3) @ Washinton
This spread is puzzling as well. I mean why are they giving this much credit to Washington? They sucked-ass the first two games vs the average Vikings and Cowboys. Suddenly because they got an auto win in Houston they are a contender? Jacksonville has looked great in every game they've played. I know Portis is back, but the Jags D is a lot better than Houstons. This seems too obvious.

So if you want to win, probably do the opposite of that.

Owning the bubble: A love, hate relationship

One of the absolute keys to consistently beating SNG's is the ability to successfully dominate the bubble. Since 4th place gets no money and 3rd gets more than a buyin back, players will naturally tend to tighten up on the bubble. In fact, it is not only natural for players to tighten up on the bubble, it is mathematically correct to do so.

Say for example you have a marginal hand such as 88 in the big blind, and the stacks are set up like so:

Blinds:200/400

UTG: 1800
Button: 2400
SB: 4200
BB: 3800


All fold to the SB who puts you all in. Now, assuming we weren't on the bubble, this may or may not be a call, depending on your opponent. If we put him on a semi-normal range here of any pair/ace/2 face cards, according to poker stove you have 57% equity over him with 88. Given that information this should be an insta call. But because we are on the bubble, things dramatically change. And its not just that we are on the bubble, its the fact that SB's push puts you all in, and puts you at risk of placing 4th for no money. So even though we will win 57% of the time against him and double up, those times we lose, we lose everything we have invested in this tournament, which is 43% of the time. Compounded on this is the fact that the UTG is fairly short stacked and much more pressured to survive than you are. To make this call given these stacks and reads, you need one of only 3 hands, QQ, KK, or AA.

There is a lot of complicated EV calculations that I could go into further to explain, but the point is clear, the bubble is something you should respect.

Getting back to the point, most players, for whatever reason, realize this to an extent. Maybe they don't tighten up as much as they should, but they generally tighten up somewhat. This tightening on the bubble allows for some seriously +EV pushes.

Now, this is all pretty standard stuff. Everyone vaguely has an idea of these notions. But it is being able to recognize every minuscule amount of EV that the bubble presents itself with that makes good players great.

Now, as the title infers, this can be a frustrating experience. There is no worse feeling in poker than having a big stack on the bubble, trying to push everyone around, getting caught and busting out in 4th yourself. There are a few key elements that go into a successful bubble domination:

1. You must have an above average stack. And more importantly, every time you push, make sure that the opponent(s) you are pushing into have less than you, even by 1 chip.
2. You have to maintain reads on opponents. Even though people tighten up, most take it to an extreme one way or the other. Either they will fold too much, or call too much. You must be able to recognize quickly who is willing to gamble it up on the bubble. Just because you know they shouldn't call, doesn't mean they won't. Clearly there is no easy way to determine this, but look for clues in their play up to this hand. If they've shown a propensity to call with trash, then it's probably best to stay away from them.
3. You have to be relentlessly aggressive. Who cares if you have A5 or 25, as long as your pushes are mathematically unexploitable (wherein even if they call with a ridiculous range of hands they can't make it a -EV play for you) you cannot lose in the long run.
   
4. Don't limit your pushes to open raise all in's. You can also reraise players who have less chips than you if they've elected to raise. This is especially effective if they've raised UTG or on the button, hoping to get heads up with the short stack in the BB, and you are in the SB with a big stack. If you raise all in here, the short BB will generally fold hoping that the original raiser busts. The original raiser, while probably sitting there with a decent hand, will have to fold all but their very best hands as the BB's stack has been further reduced.
5. Do not be afraid of busting out in 4th. Yes, it is painful, but for the one time that it happens, the other 9 times you'll end up winning the whole thing. Respect the bubble but don't fear it.
   

It is also important to not get carried away. There are situations that even though a push may be +EV, you should probably fold one and let the table know that you aren't pushing any 2 cards. Otherwise you will probably receive a big fat spite call from Mr. A7o and it won't be fun. Also, you when reraising players all in, you have to be pretty certain that this will work. Generally it is not smart to do this to bad players, as when they raise, they are usually raising for value and see a reraise as an opportunity to double up, and ignore the bubble completely. The best players to reraise are those that are likely to be targeting the short stack. Also watch for unusual raising sizes such at 2.5xBB, as they are generally designed to fold to resistance.

Here are some interesting hand examples of bubble ownage:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter

Hero (t6580)
SB (t625)
BB (t1745)
UTG (t4550)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5s, 5c.
UTG raises to t1800, Hero raises to t6530, 2 folds, UTG folds

Here is a classic example. There are 2 micro stacks in the blinds, one who is almost all in. UTG probably knows this and probably has some sort of hand that he wouldn't mind busting them out with. The blinds see my raise, and fold (like retards) hoping that I will bust the UTG player. In this case the UTG player is a semi-regular that I play against and I was pretty certain that he would fold this and he did. Now, obviously, regulars are wise to this move and probably won't even raise unless they have a strong hand, but generally you should be fine.

Hand 2:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed)

Hero (t5785)
BB (t975)
UTG (t4640)
Button (t2100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6h, Kh.
1 fold, Button calls t600, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t1650) 9d, 3d, 3h (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets t600, Hero calls t600, BB folds.

Turn: (t2850) 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t2850) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets t1200, Button folds.

Final Pot: t4050

Results below:
Hero has 6h Kh (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins t4050.

Now this is a pretty subtle hand. Notice first that the BB is super short, and is left with around 300 after putting in his big blind. Notice as well that the button is fairly short as well. Now, what usually happens when the BB is super short, is that players with decent hands will limp, the BB pushes, everyone calls and checks it down. Here the BB didn't push so it was a bit different than usual. Once the BB folds, and the button checks behind me I know he just wanted heads up against the BB. He is now in danger of busting out before that ridiculously short stacked BB does. No one likes busting out here. So I bet, putting him all in. Its a very high percentage bet that will win the pot way more often than not, but may be difficult to recognize at first.

As an afterthought, it would have been probably best for me to just push all in here from the SB, hopefully getting the BB to fold and in turn the button to follow, but this way is interesting too.

One last thing about playing on the bubble is that all good players know how to abuse the bubble themselves. Don't even think about raising to steal the blinds without pushing all in, as they will take the play away from you 9/10 times. Pushing is fine, as long as you assign the correct ranges, but raising is just asking for trouble. I know, I know, sometimes you'll be sitting there with 12bb and AQo, but just push. Raising to 2.5bb with the intention of folding to a reraise is utterly pointless, as a good player will surely oblige your fears. Now on the other hand, if you are playing with a bunch of donks who can't reraise without a good hand, go ahead and do that.

They key thing to take away from this post, if anything, is to become more aware of the intricacies of bubble play. The effect of the bubble is 2 fold. You have to become more tight, and also more aggressive. Tight when calling and aggressive when raising. Be aware that players are generally aware that the bubble exists and will naturally tighten up. Exploit this tendency and you'll find yourself in great position when the bubble bursts.

I never knew that poker players were all homosexual...

That could be the reason my ass got raped so hard in Vegas... maybe they are bi...

Regardless, I am back early from Vegas. Yes, I went busto, well, partially busto.

The losses were the result of the standard combination of bad luck, bad timing, and bad play. I'll give an example of each:

Bad Luck: On my very first hand of 2/5 NL (no joke), I called a modest raise with 88 and saw the flop 4 ways. J84 rainbow flop. I bet out, get raised, I push, they call and have JJ and I'm down a buyin.

Bad Timing: A sick drunken mess has been raising the shit out of every pot preflop, up to 10xBB. Since he is to my immediate right, I can isolate him easily if I can get a hand. I eventually get AK and he pops it to $20 (1/2NL) and I raise to $60. Behind me, obviously, is KK in the blinds, and they push for $100 more. Suck my dick.

Bad Play: I decide after playing for 8 hours with essentially the same people, that I have a decent read on them and figure I can make some moves (obviously a recipe for disaster right there). I get 77 on the button and observe the standard 8 limpers to me, this time I pop it big and get 2 callers, one being a ridiculous calling station. K44 rainbow flop, check, bet call. Ace turn, check, bet call. Fucking eh. I'm pretty sure he has a king and I think to myself, hey, maybe this calling station will fold to a big river bet since he has to at least put me on some sort of hand. I go all in to his river check and he thinks for a few minutes then calls with K7. NH sir. I'm a moron.

After losing a sickening amount of buyins, I came to a conclusion:

I Hate Poker.

I truly do. It's simply not fun for me anymore. One thing I know is that playing a solid ABC style of poker theoretically dominates live low stakes games. Now to play a solid ABC game takes an incredible amount of patience. This includes: folding every single hand for 2 hours straight, folding every time a calling station makes a bet, folding top pair 50% of the time. Now, I naturally have a lot of patience. I'm a pretty laid back person and I'm not naturally aggressive, so this style fits into my persona well. But even I have my limits.

If I want to play poker to have fun, I can, but I'll probably lose. And if I want to play to make money, it will be boring as shit but I'll have a slight chance of winning. Neither of these options are that appealing to me.

What has become fun for me in poker is trying to outplay or out think my opponents. Since I play against the same opponents often, I have a pretty good idea of how they play, and it is genuinely fun to try and out think them. However, in Vegas, players play so randomly and erratically that it is almost impossible to decipher what they are intending to do. Now, one could say that I simply lack the skills to read them - and I probably do to an extent - but my fundamental understanding of the game should naturally overcome this apparent shortcoming. I can't outplay someone who never considers for a fraction of a second what cards I may be holding. Then it just becomes a guessing game as to what cards they have and if I should value bet or not.

Only value betting is not fun. It's not fun for 2 reasons. One; you don't get hands worth value betting very often. And two; there is little thought behind it. You simply look at your cards and bet. Even though I'm not an action player, I enjoy bluffing occasionally. I like being able to put a sick read on someone and make them lay down a strong hand. I can do it online, but I had no chance in Vegas. They called me down every single time.

People simply don't consider what cards you could have. Once during a session I was getting a particularly shitty run of cards and actually folded every hand for 2 hours. I eventually got JJ UTG and raised to $15 (1/2 NL). I got 5 callers. And since I didn't hit a set, I had to fold to the action. I got to see some of the hands that called my initial raise. One was KTo (that was the first caller) and the second was A7s. So to recap, I folded every hand for 2 hours. I then raise huge from UNDER THE GUN and 5 people called me with hands I wouldn't wipe my own ass with. I then went on to fold for the rest of the day.

Perhaps my idea of ABC poker is too tight. Perhaps I need to see more flops. I don't know. Whatever the problem is, I need improvement. Actually what I really need is to talk to a solid winning player and determine what they do to beat the hedgehogs at the 1/2 NL game. All the players I saw who played like I did, seemingly never got anywhere either, as they usually had an average stack size as well. There has to be something I'm missing.

SO, yadda yadda yadda. Standard whine post from a loser who can't beat the low stakes. Whatever. I gotta get back playing SNGs and rebuild my losses and never play cash games again.

I'm going-going back-back to Vegas

I think I've used that title before.

After taking a semi-break at the end of Aug and start of Sept, I've sort of, halfway, gotten back on the poker saddle. The end of the month wasn't all that bad. I mean, it could have been worse. It's just that, compared to the first 20 days of the month, it really really sucked.

I ran good for the first 21 days with a 17% ROI over 631 games. I was on pace for a $10k+ month and was very excited about it. So excited that I went out and bought a car. Good move. Then obviously, I start losing. I ran at -10% ROI for the next 236 games, which included exactly zero winning moments. Just constantly slowly losing, which is the best kind of loss.

All confidence shot, etc, etc... want to kill myself - standard.

Then I take a week+ off goofing around in $0.25/0.50 NL and other random games in an effort to erase all horrific memories of losses. And I don't know if it worked or not, but when I started playing SNGs again, I won.

Now mind you, I experienced a lot of sand in the old vagina trying to get back playing SNGs. First, I dropped down to exclusively $60s. Then I started to "book wins" when up a substantial amount. This all just after I obtained my grinder card in August. But I felt I needed it. If I had to deal with another losing day I'd probably have quit altogether, especially after taking a week off to calm down.

So sand in the vagina or not, I'm up 2k for the month. Which isn't spectacular, but its profit, and more importantly, my confidence is restored.

And thanks to the Steelers pulling off the cover of the fucking century last Thursday, I'm up an extra $1500. So, all is well in land of me.

Finally, getting back to the post title, (wtf?) I booked another trip to Vegas, leaving this Wednesday for 2 weeks. The plan is to play 2/5 NL at various casinos, and I end up booking some decent daily wins, ($500+) I'll take a shot at a MTT at Bellagio. And hopefully I can curb my ADD enough to win at the 2/5 NL game, as thats probably the only thing that would prevent it.

Oh and yea, hookers and blow.

And now for something completely different

Cautiously approaching a return to the games;
Last weeks raping left my ass in flames.
Never before had I dropped so low;
A few thousand FPP points was all I had to show.

August started with endless prosperity;
But then even booking a win became a rarity.
September will be different! I have to keep hope;
Or soon my life may end with the tightening of a rope.

The game has become stale, my style, unconfident;
A shame to think that I was once brilliant.
Is there a way out of this nightmare called poker?
Or am I enslaved for life, as is a smoker.