October Results...

I had such high hopes for October. But I should really stop getting excited about mid-month results as I generally finish the month eating shit. Here's a graph.



















I'm starting to think the variance machine at poker stars is broken.

October by the numbers:

# of Games: 846
ROI: 8%
Days Played: 18
Total Buyins: $65,545
Total Revenue: $76,756.5
Profit: $5,496.5
Total Rake Paid: $5,715 (lol)
Estimated $/Hour: $77.66
FPPs Collected: 71,437.5 (= $1071.56)

$114 Turbos
Tourneys Played: 389
Total Profit: $6022.5
ROI: 14%

$60 Turbos
Tourneys Played: 428
Total Profit: -$633
ROI: -2% (lol?)

Best ITM (in the money) Streak: 8 (10/25), 2/3/1/2/3/1/2/1
Worse ITM Streak: 16 (10/12), 5/8/4/4/6/5/6/7/6/4/9/7/6/4/6/8

Top 5 Best days:
Oct 11: +$1491.00
Oct 5: +$1053.00
Oct 3: +$1023.00
Oct 17: +$910.50
Oct 23: +$886.50

Top 5 Worst days:
Oct 19: -$1516.50 (record breaking worst day)
Oct 25: -$1399.50
Oct 6: -$340.60
Oct 10: -$63.00
Oct 12: +140.00 (over 89 games)

October may have been my worst month of all time. But it is hard to say, as poker is so relative.

For example, in April I ate shit on a daily basis, ended up the month with a shit stomping 3% ROI for a grand total of $245 profit. How can that even compare to October where I at least made $6g's~ with an ROI of 8%? Well in all honesty it can't, and I'm beginning to regret writing this paragraph.

Ok, so I've lived through worse than October. But I can't say I'm too happy about it. In April, I was on the receiving end of a daily ass raping. I knew it, I felt it and I wasn't happy about it. I was the victim of countless overpairs and suckouts and I knew shit just wasn't going right for me. I still had hope that my luck would change. Now for October, I can't say that all my losses were due to bad luck. I mean, throughout the whole month, even the days of complete ball stomping hell, I never really was aware that I was getting unlucky. Most of the time it seemed to come down to me not winning a coinflip here and there. Standard stuff.

When playing 10 games at a time, it's hard to be aware of all the losses that I endure, which probably has probably altered my perception a bit. But something just doesn't feel right. I don't feel that I deserve a 15%~ ROI anymore. I think that this month has been a pretty decent indicator, as far as my observations go, of the type of luck I should expect. Nothing out of the ordinary. But who knows. There are days where nothing seems out of the ordinary and I pull out a 30%'er.

The presence of all the former Party players at Stars has me worried for now, since most of them are competent (not good, just better than randomfish_01) and they undoubtedly make the games tougher, as they are less apt to stack off with top pair early, or make -EV pushes/calls later. Only time will tell what is really going on. For now, I'll take my 6.5k, and hope for the best next month.

Oh, and heres my favorite hand from the month...

PokerStars Game #6739682485: Tournament #34295770, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/10/23 - 12:35:15 (ET)
Table '34295770 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 3: RikkiDee (380 in chips)
Seat 4: exciting111 (3325 in chips)
Seat 5: Kikken (9500 in chips)
Seat 7: bigmar99 (295 in chips)
RikkiDee: posts the ante 50
exciting111: posts the ante 50
Kikken: posts the ante 50
bigmar99: posts the ante 50
RikkiDee: posts small blind 300
exciting111: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [4h 2c]
Kikken: folds
bigmar99: calls 245 and is all-in
RikkiDee: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c Ac 9c]
*** TURN *** [5c Ac 9c] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [5c Ac 9c 8h] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
exciting111: shows [2h 3s] (a straight, Ace to Five)
exciting111 collected 110 from side pot
bigmar99: shows [9s Qs] (a pair of Nines)
exciting111 collected 935 from main pot
RikkiDee said, "lol"

THX 4 FREE 3RD!

(btw this is a horrible fold but I didn't know it at the time, still funny tho)

I've lost that loving feeling

Standard.

So fucking standard.

Post unreasonable results, get punished.

My last 500 SNGs have been so worthwhile. I mean, I think I've made like 50k FPP points! WOWZERS! As for actual monies made - $0. ZERO. Up and down and settled right on zero profit. Thats how I roll. GRAPH TIME>>>

















It started with the worst day of my poker life, when I lost $1700 in a days work. Since then I've tried vehemently to claw back some sort of profit, by putting in redidonkulous hours at the tables. And what do I have to show for it? FPP points.

Yesterday I set a personal record for most games played in a day with 160. I started 10 tabling a mix of the 60s and 114s, and just played all fuckin' day. Was all over the place in results. At one point down $800, then up $1000. I settled at +$400. Woopie.

Whats sad is that I'm actually concerned with not just money lost, but my stupid ROI% going down. What a pathetic piece of shit I am. If sharkscope didn't exist I probably wouldn't care, but since I can compare myself to others, I have this irrational desire to have better stats than them - even though the only stat that matters is total profit. I'm pretty sure that even though I have played over 5k SNGs my true ROI is somewhere around 12% for the 60s, and probably like 9% for the $114s. But since I'm still showing up at 14% overall, its going to be a fun next couple of months to bring that avg down.

On a positive note, I recently installed AutoHotKey, which is a automated macro program. On its own its a useless program but if some smart people create scripts for it, it can kick serious amounts of ass. A 2+2 poster created on such script for PokerStars. You can download it here. The script does a few things. It creates a macro for all in so you don't have to slide the bar over. You simply just press * or your mouse scroll button. Also by pressing F2 all of those stupid annoying lobbies that pop up for each SNG are closed instantly. It also makes joining games easier by auto registering once you click the "register" button in the lobby.
Just little things really but its really nice for multitabling. I'm sure if someone was even smarter they could use this to create a SNG playing bot. Hmmm...!

Football picks went good for once. I went 2-1-1, so, profit! The Vikings ended up killing Seattle, which marks the last time I bet on Seattle ever again. I just bought a LCD HD TV with my Best Buy dollars from Poker Stars. It's pretty boner inducing, especially watching football in HD.

Well, its only 8am today and I've already played 36 games sofar. My goal today is 100, and just praying to make a profit. I'll take $100 just fucking give me a winning day.

Edit - I don't think I'll ever learn to spell probably properly. I spell it "probabbly" every single time. And spell check catches every one every time. For some reason I use that word a lot. It's probably because I'm so indecisive about things. Probabbly.

Hands... touching hands...

Had a bunch of interesting hands from last night and I thought I'd spam my blog with some of them. They will start off fairly simple and will eventually crescendo into an orgy of poker entertainment.

Green text! Oh yes!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kc, Ac.
3 folds, Hero raises to t60, 1 fold, CO calls t60, 2 folds, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t190) 9h, Jh, Kh (3 players)
BB bets t160, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: t350

First hand involves my new least favorite hand, AK. I've been experimenting with this hand a lot lately, trying different methods of playing it. As I said, nothing overly interesting other than I think most people would at least call here. I have no read on the BB here and no matter what he is betting into me, unless the turn is a complete blank I'll be lost in the hand. So I just cut my losses early and fold. Easy money baby.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ad, As.
Hero calls t20, 6 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) 8c, 7h, 8s (3 players)
SB bets t60, BB folds, Hero calls t60.

Turn: (t180) 4d (2 players)
SB bets t140, Hero calls t140.

River: (t460) Ts (2 players)
SB bets t380, Hero calls t380.

Final Pot: t1220

Ok so I'm a stupid moron and limp AA UTG. I do this like 1% of the time just to show regulars that its in my arsenal. Now, usually when someone bets out on a XXY flop, they have the Y or some sort of draw. So in this case, with AA, I'm either way ahead or way behind. No value in raising here other than to possibly shut out draws, but he really seems to like his hand. On the river I think I probably have to call since I've severely underrepresented my hand but I don't figure to be ahead here very often. Oh yea he had T8 here. GG me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed)

MP1 (t1550)
Hero (t1490)
MP3 (t1370)
CO (t1520)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1480)
UTG (t1530)
UTG+1 (t1610)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ks, Qs.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, 1 fold, Hero calls t20, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t80) 5c, Qd, 5d (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t60, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t60.

Turn: (t200) 8c (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (t200) 8d (3 players)
UTG+1 bets t60, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t260

What you say? Just call that 60? NO! FUCK YOU! Smooth call on the flop is almost always either a 5 or a diamond draw. Both beat me on this river. I felt kind of stupid for not calling for a bit untill he flashed me his hand:

queculin: shows [5h 5s] (four of a kind, Fives)

LOL TO RESULTS ORIENTED THINKING!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed)

BB (t1240)
UTG (t1190)
Hero (t2465)
MP2 (t765)
CO (t3720)
Button (t1170)
SB (t2950)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Kc, Ac.
1 fold, Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t975) 9c, 4s, 2d (2 players)
BB bets t790 (All-In), Hero calls t790.

This hand sucks. The BB here is a regular multitabler and is probably just doing a fucking stop&go with a pair. I really didn't want to call here. Sure enough he had 55 and I never improved. Eat shit. I still think this is a call. Apparently I can only make good laydowns when 60 chips are at stake.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (4 handed)

BB (t960)
Hero (t8650)
Button (t1060)
SB (t2830)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qs, 7h.
Hero calls t800, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t1750) Jd, 6c, 8d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t800, BB folds.

Final Pot: t2550

Do the math. BB has 960 to start the hand. After posting the BB and the ante he has 110 left. The pot is 1750. I know you are supposed to be tight on the bubble but this is hilarious. And yes these are $114 opponents.

*Disclaimer* This next hand is stupid. It is not meant to be an example of how to play. It is played in a donkey manner due to the extreme guppyness of the opponents involved.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed)

MP2 (t2700)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t2460)
SB (t1565)
BB (t2270)
UTG (t1310)
MP1 (t95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ad, Ac.
1 fold, MP1 raises to t95 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t95, 1 fold, SB calls t70, BB raises to t140, Hero raises to t350, SB folds, BB calls t210.

Flop: (t890) 6h, 3d, Jh (3 players)
BB bets t250, Hero raises to t750, BB calls t500.

Turn: (t2390) Jc (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t2390) 8h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t2390

Ridiculous. I tried my hardest to tell them I had aces. I made so many retarded moves this hand including smooth calling a tiny raise with AA, and then min raising a raise with them again. So please try to ignore its uglyness, and enjoy its hilarity. I knew when the BB reraised that I got bailed out, since the SB is a regular and I knew wouldn't call a reraise by me. I just wanted heads up vs the horrid BB. But then the board keeps getting uglier and uglier that I'm forced to check it. How can I be ahead?

BB has 4h 4d (two pair, jacks and fours).
Hero has Ad Ac (two pair, aces and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t2390.

These are the types of hands that amuse me now. The more subtle the better.

So like, whats up?

Living they day to day life of a SNG grinder is probably the furthest thing from glamorous. I never take any shots, never play any MTT's or higher stakes cash games. I just sit on my ass and play Sit and Go's, all day and night. But it pays the bills and is probably just as monotonous as any other traditional job.

For this reason I sometimes have little to post about. I mean, there aren't many blogs out there detailing the day to day activities of an assistant manager of human resources, so why would mine be so damned interesting? And I'm not even saying that this blog is inherently more interesting than a HR assistant managers would be. Maybe he or she would have a lot of amusing anecdotes to write about. But I've sure enjoyed writing on this here blog. And I intend to keep it fresh, despite the monotony of my grind.

I recently just read my entire archived blog, back to almost a year ago in mid November 2005. It is pretty amazing how much has changed in a year, and for nothing else, I'm glad I've recorded it in this blog. To anyone who is thinking of writing a blog, on any topic, I'd definitely recommend it. Yes, blogs are gay, and you probably will be made fun of by your real life friends, but hey, fuck them. This is your life.

Ok lets talk about teh poker. I've been running very well since I got back from Vegas a month ago. It's funny that the entirety of my well running has been at the $114s and not the $60s - which is obviously a good thing. But it's also a really weird thing. I mean here are my graphs since getting back from Vegas:

































I mean, I'll take it, but seriously wtf? I know, I know, sample size and yada yada, but seriously WTF??

I couldn't tell you. When I play I load 8 tables up in a way where I have no idea whether they are $60 or $114 when I'm playing them. And it just keeps going. It's gotten to the point where I don't even bother playing the $60s anymore. I mean, why bother? I'm ridiculously over rolled for them anyways and I've been taking a beating in them for the last 500 games. The $114s take a bit longer to start up since not as many people play them, but hey, I think I can afford to be patient if I can continue to run anywhere near this goot.

And thats the other thing. Usually when I'm running good, I notice it. I'm consciously aware that I'm either getting lucky in suckouts or in starting cards. And for this run, honestly it feels like the status quo. Nothing out of the ordinary. Every session still involves me getting angry, throwing things and whining like a little bitch. But each time I end up on top, above the realm of expectation. WTF?

Speaking of results above the realm of expectation - last weekend I made money betting on football. I know, impossible. Well, this month seems to be the month of impossible feats. I did it by betting on one "sure" game. Last week it was Miami @ New York Jets (-2.5). I took the Jets. It looked real good watching the game, as they were up like 500-0 into the fourth quarter, but somehow, Joey fucking Harrington threw for like 342523 yards and 543 touchdowns in the last 3 minutes and almost covered the spread. The Jets ended up winning by 3. Phew. Thats the second time this year that I've bet big against the Dolphins. Easy money?

Ok so I'll try some picks here. This week, I did something I like to do occasionally. I looked at the schedule, and before looking at the spreads offered, I made my own spreads, guessing what they would be. Then I compared them to what the actuals were. Any spreads that are off significantly I will bet on. Surely I know better than the Las Vegas odds makers!

New England (-5) @ Buffalo

I had this one at (-7). A few things working here. One, I take back everything I said about J.P. Losman. He's an inexperienced fish who can get lucky at times, which can make him look good. Against a good defense, he aint shit without a few miracles. Buffalo made it close vs New England on opening weekend, and even though this game is in Buffalo, the Pats have looked stronger each week, while Buffalo has looked worse.

Carolina (+3) @ Cincinnati

I actually had Carolina at (-1), surprised they aren't favoured here. Carolina has won 4 straight, but they sure like to keep it close. The cumulative margin of victory for those 4 games is 15. And they haven't lost since getting Steve Smith back. Now while I don't understand how 1 wide receiver can make that much of a difference, there has to be something to that. Cinci just doesn't look as good as they did last year. They are missing something.

Denver (-4.5) @ Cleveland

I had Denver at (-7) here. Sure, they haven't scored much this year relying on their D to keep it close and praying Jake Plummer doesn't blow it. But I think there offense is due for a breakout 30+ game. Cleveland is the perfect team for them to beat up on.

Minnesota (+6.5) @ Seattle

I had this at +7. Even though that isn't that big of a difference, I still think Seattle has a good chance of killing the Vikes. Minnesota looked fucking terrible their last 2 games vs Buffalo and Detroit. They are much worse then their record says. They should probably be 0-5. Brad Johnston can suck it. I've never made any money betting on Seattle, and even though they barely beat St. Louis last week, I don't see the Vikings giving them any trouble.

As per usual, for guaranteed 4-0 action, take Buffalo, Cinci, Cleveland and 'Sota.

Reflection - Erection?

They simply just rhyme.

Pokerstars finally released their statement about this whole online gambling ban thingy. It is rather brief and can be viewed here. It seems that poker sites are going to take the stand that online Poker isn't gambling and therefore shouldn't be included in this ban. Makes sense to me, lets hope it stands.

And while I want poker to stay indefinitely, a part of me doesn't care. Sure, the money has been great and I'll never stop enjoying that aspect. But I've definitely grown tired of the game to some extent. I rarely log on to play anymore just to play. I used to though. I used to run home and load up 1 table of 0.25/0.50 NL and cream my pants when I doubled up. I used to take pleasure in trying to outplay my opponents. I used to, but now its all just a grind.

I've become a pretty cynical player. It's basically all about the money and not about the game anymore. I imagine myself not playing poker, rather sifting through a matrix of unrelated numbers, trying to arrange them. Or something like that - something that isn't poker.

Sitting down to one table is a foreign concept to me now. I get completely bored and end up forcing the action way too much. I've seen so many terrible plays even at the semi-high stakes that I play and I can't see my opponents as anything but this...

It's sad really, since I've put so much study into this game that I once loved. But like any obsession I have, it dwindles eventually. But hopefully this is just a phase and I'll find a game that rejuvenates me, as in theory I should still love this game.

OH and how about those football picks? That's right bitches, you can count on me for the best guaranteed picks. Just as long as you pick the opposite of me that is. 0-9 in the last 2 weeks, a feat almost statistically impossible. Tune in later this week for more golden picks.

LOL USA

LAND OF THE FREE INDEED!!!

I'm somewhat undecided about this whole gambling prohibition thing. I mean, obviously it is -EV for me since I'm going to be losing a large % of my customers. But since no one is entirely clear on the bill's long term implications, I'm going to reserve my judgement until the virtual smoke clears.

For now, I've been playing a ton and destroying the games. I'm not sure if people are gamboooling it up more now since they feel the end is near, or it's just the sunny side of variance. All I know is that I'm going to keep on keepin' on until the games run dry. Oh and go on a crazy FPP spending spree. I've already bought $3k in Best Buy money, 5 books, a bunch of cheap shit like bags and shirts, portable DVD player, and some Amazon money. Hopefully they can ship it quicker than the 3 months it took last time for my Camera to arrive.

But enough about all that.

If anyone noticed, my awesome football prediction came true. Oh no, not the picks. Just the prediction that I would get them all wrong. I mean, how bad can I be to actually pick all 6 losers against the spread? I enjoy watching football on its own, but I just don't think I can help my myself. I'll try one more round of football picks since I enjoyed putting them on the blog last weekend.

Tennessee (+18) @ Indianapolis

Right off the bat I don't like this spread. I have always been a sucker for betting on the underdog when there are astronomical spreads like this. So my gut here is to take Tennessee. But, they have been smoked twice already this season against Dallas and San Diego, and gave a terrible Miami team their only win. But, while in theory Indy is an elite team, they haven't really been killing teams this year. They've beaten all but Houston by a touchdown or less (Jets, Jacksonville and the Giants). This is close. Manning has made a career of padding his stats by blowing out teams. But he is such a douche. Vince Young has looked pretty unimpressive so far this year, and playing in Indy probably isn't going to help. Lets go with Indy for the blowout.

Buffalo (+10) @ Chicago

I've liked what I've seen from Losman this season. He's this years Jake Delhomme (the 2003 version). He looks tough, energetic and wants to win. The Bills could also easily be 4-0 this year with close losses against New England and the Jets. Yes Grossman has looked good, but other than Seattle they've only beaten Green Bay, Minnesota and the Lions. Seattle sucks anyways. No matter who wins this game, it's going to come down to a field goal.

Kansas City (-3.5) @ Arizona

This spread makes no sense to me. Kansas City ruined San Fran last week. While they are 1-2, they've played good teams in Denver and Cincinnati. Arizona has looked terrible this season. And they are starting Leinart this week, which usually never goes well. When I first read this spread I thought it was -13.5 and thought it was a tough decision.

Now if you want to actually make money, Tennessee, Chicago and Arizona.

The latest episode of South Park blew me away. I would highly recommend watching their latest offering. You can download it here. Probably the funniest episode in many years.