The Re-Pussification of RikkiDee

Back in August I boasted about my new found grinding abilities. I had finally gotten over the hump of booking wins and all that other garbage. I put in long days, and got some sweet ass results in the process.

I proceeded to play like this for months, and I was fine with it. I was used to getting in 50+ games a day and was increasingly numb to the inevitable swings.

But then November happened. Confidence shot, bankroll depleted. The suicide watch was on around here.

The pain of a diminishing bankroll is one that is not easily overcome. I had to move down in limits, examine my game and hopefully claw back up to glory. Now while I've been marginally successful this month, I'm still nowhere near the hot and sexy grinding machine that I was August-October. In December I've only played about 350 games, which is pathetic, put possibly needed.

I'm not sure if its +EV to start booking wins and cutting sessions short when up right now. I mean, in the vacuum of poker world, I should be playing whenever I can, assuming I have an edge. But in my fragile faggy mind, I need to see those wins, down on paper, to prove once again that I can become a winning grinder. So for the last 3 days, while taking in almost $3k in winnings, I've cut every session short. Probably a -EV move in the short run, but it may be just what I need to get back in the saddle.

It doesn't look like I'm going to be putting in any more serious days in before the New Year. A week ago I was planning my graceful exit from the poker world, and dealing with a month of negative income. So to be sitting here a week later up close to $4k, I feel that I shouldn't be greedy and continue to grind it out, even if there is a potential upside of a few more thousand.

I'm good, lets chill.














(Thats my cat - Princess. Chillin')

Workin for the weekend

New Years Resolution #1: No more depressing posts.
New Years Resolution #2: Stop losing money in poker.

Unfortunately resolution #1 is completely dependant on resolution #2.
Fortunately I've been winning.

Throughout the past week I've really tried to analyze my game and also my general approach to the games in general. I think I've made some pretty decent adjustments for gaining extra chips early and mid game. Additionally I've been more restrictive on game selection. Gone are the days where I blindly load up 8 straight games. I'm now examining the competition in the lobby before signing up. If there are too many good players I'll pass and wait for a new one. I've also been waking up early before most of the regulars are up.

But no adjustment has come close to the massively untapped EV fountain that is early mornings on the weekends. Most of the time on the weekends I'm hungover and asleep, but this weekend I wasn't doing anything so I decided to wake up early and get the proverbial worm.

And damn nigga, thems some juicy fields. Barely any regulars to contend with, just all fishy juice factories with an extra $60 to spare. Heres this weeks graph.
















As you can see I didn't really play much this week at all, but I'll take $3k/week every fuckin week of my life. It's amazing how a little thing like winning can change your perspective. Running good this month with an ROI of 14% over 300 games, which is quite amazing considering during the first 2 weeks this month, results looked like this:
















So you can just imagine how I was feeling after a week of that bullshit. I think its pretty interesting reading back on my blog, seeing how each post completely captures how I was feeling when I wrote it whether or not I intended it to.

And heres one more graph:

Luck and Success

I've been thinking a lot lately about success in life. Not just success I suppose, but how it is obtained and maintained.

A common theme in a lot of successful people's life is that they took a risk early on in life and it paid off. You don't hear much about the guy who risked it all and went busto, but clearly it happens at a much higher frequency.

And it doesn't really mater what facet of sucess you are talking about, it always boils down to the same formula. Man has idea -> Man risks a life of steady income to pursue idea -> Man is a success. It's a pretty commonly known conception that most people at least consider during their life. Most realize it, but still choose the "safe" life - mostly due to risk aversion but also due to laziness and lack of ability.

It also is reflected in poker perfectly, although I didn't realize it at first.

You see, poker is merely a game of skill and luck. Those who take their shots can be successful, but in all likelihood will go busto. Those who take their shots and do well are hailed as poker greats in the community, while the citizens of bustoville are laughed at. Both communities had the same idea and drive, the only difference being one succeeded and one didn't. And I think this is pretty indicative of the landscape of society in general. Poker once again mirrors real life.

But what gets me thinking, with my knowledge of poker now, is that the difference between a truly successful poker player and your average card carrying member of the busto club can be at times simply a matter of luck. This is especially true in tournaments, where the huge fields and prize pools generated can give the winner a massive bankroll and confidence boost, to which he can parlay into a successful poker career. Or maybe it was simply a matter of a shot taken at a higher limit. Take a 1/2 NL player putting his bankroll on the line to sit at a soft 25/50 NL game. One good run there could change his life to give him the BR to play higher and the confidence to boot.

I'm not saying that just because these players got lucky at one time makes them any less skilled or worthy of their high limit status. I think that with many players there is the potential to be great, and maybe it just takes one lucky streak to realize it. Maintaining it is the next thing of course, and those who can clearly were ready to play anyways. But not everyone gets that opportunity to realize their potential. Multitable tournaments are especially bad indicators as there is just a ridiculous amount of luck involved. Sure the best players will win in the long run, but it really can take just one big win to give one that opportunity to succeed. I'm sure there are thousands of great tournament players who are capable of winning but just haven't yet and may give up. There simply is no discernible difference between some high level players and some low level ones, other than the amount of luck that has been bestowed upon them to get them to where they are.

And I think that rings true in real life as well. You look at successful entrepreneurs and a lot of the time they merely are a result of a good idea and a lot of luck to get them to where they are. I'm sure many people go broke chasing the American dream just like many go broke playing poker.

There is a quote by Bill Gates that says:

"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose"

And I think that is a pretty good indication that luck is a huge factor in all aspects of life. Once successful, its probably hard to think that your success is due to anything but your intellect and drive. And, while intellect and drive are definitely the building blocks for success, luck cannot be ignored.

I just finished the autobiography of my hero Bruce Campbell. He is the actor of Evil Dead/Army of Darkness fame. He is not an "A-list" actor but he is definitely successful. Many times in the book he eludes to how much a factor luck was in getting his career off the ground. At one point he had every penny he owned, plus a ton of investors money tied up in their first movie (Evil Dead) and if it hadn't succeeded then he probably would have given up the acting gig. He also points out that actors as products for production are basically homogeneous. There honestly isn't that much of a tangible difference between one actor and another, which is why so many are unemployed waiters. Luck is the key to success in Hollywood.

But the question remains, is it luck that makes a successful person or is it drive? A great poker player may be destined to succeed no matter what route he takes, as his superior skill will take him to the high stakes games whether or not he grinds it out or gets lucky and wins a big tournament. For that player it is just a matter of time. And the same is true in the real world. Some people are so driven and have such great ideas that there is simply no way that any amount of bad luck will keep them from succeeding. But these cases I imagine are the minority. The rest of the world needs a little bit of luck and opportunity to succeed.

It's almost a depressing thought for me. I've always had the ambitions to one day be totally self sufficient. To think that its possible to fail regardless of my ideas or effort, seems rather unfair. But that is obviously life, and balancing risk is inherent in every decision we make.

Now if I could just win a big ass tournament and proclaim myself a poker god, I can forget that this post ever happened.

On the fast train to Busto-ville

I haven't had the motivation to post in a while. I also have been sucking serious amounts of ass in poker. Coincidence?

Its getting to the point where I don't even want to tally and review daily results anymore. My dwindling bankroll is enough information. These losses are really getting scary though. Its definitely past the point of pain now. Each successive loss has become part of the routine.

November was bad - pretty much as bad as I could imagine. But I still came out on top thanks to the $1000 bonus and FPP points. This month I have no bonus to fall back on and I'm still in the red for the month. Its a little surreal at times.

I mean, I have essentially a whole years results as evidence that I was at one time a winning player. But when faced with almost two months of breakeven play, its hard to imagine that anything but bad poker play is going on.

Its getting to the point where it probably isn't just variance.

And that is something I have to deal with rationally. I mean, the games have gotten exponentially more difficult since the legislation and there really isn't any reason that they are going to get easier. Even with a large percentage of the SNG regulars moving over to cash games, the SNGs are still ridiculously tough.

The only question I really have to ask myself is: is there anyway I can improve my game to the point where I have a substantial edge over my competition again? And to be honest I'm not entirely sure. SNGs are pretty limited in your amount of creativity. Once the blinds get even past the first 2 levels, play becomes ridiculously structured. It would make sense that early game is the only room for improvement for a SNG player once the intricacies of pushbotting are well understood. But since the early game only lasts about 10-15 hands, there aren't a ton of chances to out play your opponents.

My only thought to this is that even if I opened up my game early and really concentrated on reads and outplaying people, its only going to add up to fractions of ROI increases in the long run. ROI's main contributor will always be correct pushbot strategy and correct bubble play. Even if I became as good as Negraneau at early game play, it just doesn't seem like it will change me from a 2% ROI player back to a 15% ROI player.

And thats where my brain is right now. I'm dealing with the fact that I have a dwindling pushbot edge over the majority of players and only a few small avenues for improvement. It may be a pretty naive view on my part but at the moment that is how I see it. SNGs aren't cash games where you have a ton of flexibility and opportunity to make reads. Most SNG opponents I play against I have to do so readless as there aren't enough opportunities to get a read on them over only 10 hands. Thats why massively multitabling SNGs had been so profitable as you didn't necessarily need strong reads to make plays. Just assign a vague calling range and push.

Whats funny is after a whole year of success, my bankroll stands at just about where it was at this point last year. So other than a bunch of money spent, this year has been pretty much a wash. How depressing.