Superman dat ho - and other related musings

Update:

I ran sick hot at 2/4 this month, and like the dogs dick at 1/2. Conclusion? Always move up to where they respect your raises obviously. Maybe I should go right for 10/20 and test this theory out to the max.

All in all I had a good month though, and with the promising results at 2/4 I can at least consider a full time move there. Although my monthly expenses were astronomical this month so it will be back to 1/2 to rebuild for a while.

In related gambling news, I've also been running sick hot in football bets this year. I'm really not sure what has happened between this year and last where I was like 10-20 on the year against the spread. Actually I do know what happened - nothing. Variance in sports betting is as prevalent as it is in poker, and since the edges you are trying to push in sports betting are significantly smaller (possibly negative ev) the "swings" are much more common.

But I'll enjoy the money for now. This week I went 6-0 which is just an amazing feeling when you watching the games and seeing every fucking god damn score come in positive. I'm 16-3 against the spread this year which is pretty amazing if you consider each bet against the spread a coinflip. But I can't take all the credit for my winning - I have to give it up for the Patriots. Its comical at this point, but I've bet on them every week this year (except once against Buffalo for some reason) and each week they've covered. As a gambler you just have to love a team that consistently goes for it on 4th and 2, while up by 35 points. I'm seriously considering that Belichick is betting on his own team to cover each week at this point.

I'm still planning on riding out this Patriot train for as long as the oddsmakers let me. I'm not sure if you have heard but they are playing Indy this upcoming weekend. The game might fly under the radar in the media but I know I'll be watching. Currently they are only giving up 4.5 points which seems ridiculous even considering how well Indy has been playing. The Pats were one dropped third down conversion away from a win last year in the AFC championship game and they have improved a ridiculous amount in the off season. I'm not going to be shocked if this game is over in the 3rd quarter. I seriously cannot wait to see crybaby Peytons fat baby face crying.

As for poker, you know that other thing I used to blog about - I'm going to try to get some strategy posts going again. Some more "dissecting a hand" and maybe even another video as they've both been pretty therapeutic for me.

Inside the Mind of Tom Brady

Is that Moss? I think he's triple-covered. You know what? Fuck it. I'm throwing it downfield.

Yeah, I see Kevin Faulk open on the flank. But fuck that. Dumpoff passes are for pussies. I'm fucking Tom Brady. I can get that ball in there. And, even if I can't, I bet I'll be able to pull it off the next go round. I like throwing the ball long. It makes my dick hard.

What's that? I should throw a quick slant? fuck that. That's gay. Button hook? Gay. Flare out? Gay. Screen pass? Kevin Spacey gay. This is fucking football. You can't just expect wins to come to you. You can't massage that shit. You gotta grab that game by the throat and rape the ever-loving shit out of it. You think a 5-yard out is gonna win you a game? You're a pussy. This ain't John Shoop running this offense. Tom Brady's got the arm. The dragon. You gotta unleash the dragon.

Okay, I'm throwing it. Nice. Look how far it went. I look good. I bet I made that Pats cheerleader wet her panties with that throw. She fucking wants me. I bet she likes it over a stair railing. I can hit that with 100% accuracy, my dear. Mmmmmm. I am delicious.

Oh shit. Looks at that. Moss just outjumped everyone and caught it for the touchdown. Again. It felt fucking great to throw that shit. Tell me that wasn't one of the prettiest passes you ever saw. You know what? Not only am I gonna throw it long the next time we hit the field. I'm gonna throw it even longer. Harder. You see that kid in wheelchair sitting in the end zone bleachers? I'm gonna try to nail him right between the fucking eyes with a Tom Brady fastball. Except Moss will jump up and catch that too.

This is Tom Brady we're talking about here. We're talking 210 lbs. of twisted steel and sex appeal. I'm not just a gunslinger. I'm a cumslinger. I fuck supermodels. Throwing that ball long tells all the Giesele wannabe's that I am fucking out there. On the edge. Where I gotta be. The ladies love the danger. The unpredictability. Oh, maybe I'll tease them with a pretty touch pass every now and again. But then I'm gonna go right back to pumping that ball out for all it's worth. It tells them I throw like I fuck. That's how we do things in the sexy business.

Tell me you're not turned on right now. I am.


Sadly I can't take credit for this genius piece of work as it was originally posted on 2+2 in this thread by "PokerFink". Looks like my mancrush on Brady isn't as uncommon as I'd hope.

Disection of a Hand

Play along with me in this hand and lets see if we agree on what to do.

(this hand is fictitious for learning purposes only)

Party Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

SB: $383.50
BB: $420.38
UTG: $484.20
Hero: $420.00
BTN: $1,671.90

Pre-Flop: 9s 9c dealt to Hero (UTG)
1 fold, Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, BB raises to $56, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($118) 2h 8d Jc (2 Players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80

Turn: ($278) 5s (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($278) 2d (2 Players)
BB bets $175, Hero folds


Ok, so theres the hand. Read it? Understand it? Ok lets discuss.

First I'll have to tell you about our opponent and the game flow. Our opponent here is a decent tight aggressive multitabler that you see often on any site. He is running a tight 20/15 game, meaning he is playing 20% of his hands and raising 15% of the hands he plays preflop. Quite often a raise from the cutoff will just steal his blind, but this time he decides to reraise us.

Pre-Flop

Now, the first thing you must do, before you call, fold or raise, is put him on a range of hands in order to make this decision. Now, a typical aggressive player here will have a semi-tight range of pocket pairs 77 and up, Ace-ten suited and all better aces, maybe KQ, KJ type hands, and occasionally a random suited connector. Very rarely will a tight non-tilted player reraise you here with like K5s, not to say it doesn't happen, but its rare enough to be insignificant.

Ok so with that range (77+, ATs+, KJ+, random sc's) we can now make our decision. We will not be playing this hand strictly for "set value", as a lot of his unpaired preflop hands will miss the flop. Because our hand has decent equity against his range, and we will have position on him throughout the hand, a call is prefered to a fold or a raise. A fold is way too tight givin the wide range of hands he is reraising us with, and a reraise will basically fold out all the hands we beat, and he will push all the hands that beat us (with the exception of AK). Call.

The Flop

Now, we call and see the flop of Jack, Eight, Two rainbow. All things considered, a good flop for our hand. We are now basically ahead of more than half his range. AK, AQ, AT, KQ all missed, as did his random suited connectors that don't contain a jack. Now he bets into us. Every good player will bet here after reraising preflop with their entire reraising range. They do this to not only get value from hands that beat us, but also to allow themselves to not be easily read when they don't have a hand that hit. Because we still are beating more than half of his range, a call is a must with the odds he is giving us. We have to call $80 to win about $200. We only have to be right about one in 3.5 hands to make this a profitable call in the long run.

What about raising? A lot of people will raise here to either "see where they are at" or to protect their hand. The problem with raising here is that he will always fold the hands you are currently beating, and he will go all in with the hands that beat you. Because there are virtually no draws aside from 9T he can't push on a draw, nor can he put you on a draw. This is important because if he pushes over your raise he probably realizes you have a made hand, and has still gone all in. Sure, raising takes the pot down now, but what are you really worried about? If he has 2 overcards you are still a 75% favorite to win the hand. Remember in a cash game you don't need to protect your stack since you can always reload.

The Turn

The turn brings another great card for you at this point, an offsuit 5, completing the rainbow, and your opponent checks. At this point he has either given up on the hand with a hand that missed, or he is trapping you. Again, this situation is one that many newer players will bet once checked to because your opponent has shown weakness, but again, what are you trying to get him to fold? What are you trying to get value from? If you bet the turn the same principle from raising the flop applies. You will never get called by a worse hand and you will get called or raised by a better hand. Even better is the fact that if he has 2 overcards you are now a 88% favorite to win the hand. And since there are basically no draws, your hand doesn't need protection from them. Just check.

The River

The river brings another safe card, pairing the two. The problem now is, your opponent decides to bet. Now, lets rewind this hand and look at it from your opponents perspective. You raised preflop, something you do often anyways, but you also called a sizable reraise preflop, meaning you must have a somewhat decent hand. You also called the flop bet and checked behind on the turn. Its very obvious you have something, but not something great since you never reraised the flop or bet the turn. You probably have a made hand that seems to want to get to a river showdown, yet your opponent bets. A lot of players will call here since your hand is pretty good and your opponent hasn't really shown a lot of strength either. The problem is, if your opponent was going to bluff twice at this hand, he is much much more likely to fire a second barrel on the turn since that is what he would do with a big hand, rather than check turn and fire on the river. Most good players know that if they bet the flop, and check the turn they are representing that they missed the flop and are giving up. They know that this line will get looked up lightly because of the turn check.

He knows you have a decent pair here, maybe even a jack, and he knows that he checked the turn indicating weakness, yet he still bets this river. River bets are for 2 reasons, bluffs or for value. This has value written all over it and if you call expect to see at least KJ. If he has a hand like TT or a weak jack he may check again because he feels that you wont call with worse often enough to make a bet worth-while.


Ok, get through all that? Its a long read but its an extraordinarily common situation that a lot of newer and inexperienced players will lose money on in the long run. At first glance it seems pretty boring, but its hands like these that you must play correctly because they happen so often.

A round of shots

I've spent most of this year at 200NL. I've beaten the fuck out of it for 9 months but rarely have I had the cojones or more recently, the cash to move up. I've seen many screenshots of datamined winrates and my numbers are comparable to the highest found online at 200NL.

Basically what I'm saying is its obvious I can beat 200NL and its fucking time to move up.

The sand in the vagina will definitely be a problem, as well as a short bankroll, but I think with some discipline, perseverance and luck I can make the leap this month. And its really not the increase in skilled opponents I'm most concerned with, its the shear real life money that is at stake. Playing 400NL you have to accept having multiple thousands of real life American dollars lost within a session. This is something that will happen, and one has to be mentally prepared for that loss.

Its times like these where I wish I had a "real job" for backup incase of busto. Although even then I'd probably still be worried since the losses would dwarf my income anyways. There really is no way to become comfortable with losing that amount of money until you do it over and over again.

I'm a huge pussy. Thats a given. But even this pussy has come to accept (most) of the swings that come with the 200NL territory. I can easily goto bed knowing I just dropped $800. I might put in a few extra hours the next day, but its definitely not keeping me up at night. I can remember back when I first started, and I had my first day where I lost more than $200. I'm pretty sure I cried myself to sleep that night.

So tonight, I decided to search through the 400NL games, trying to find the fishiest tables. Eventually I found 4 that I could be comfortable at and played for a few hours. The other biggest adjustment for 400NL is that fish still exist, really bad fish, but they are just fewer in numbers compared to the volume of sharks. So once you find a table with a really shitty player, its not uncommon for 4 other sharks to play there, all happy that at least there is 1 fish. At 200NL its not too difficult to find many tables with 2 or more fish on them, so table selection isn't anywhere near as important.

Anyways, here is the results from tonights mini session. Its really really nice to run good when you are taking a shot at the next buyin level.

HOW PLAY POKER

Had a great past weekend with a trip with da boys to Montreal for muchos drunken debauchery. I have to say that it is probably my favorite party town that I've been to. And staying at hostels as oppose to hotels is definitely +EV. The weekend was capped off with another beautiful blowout by New England on Monday night. I had a $100 on them and it was the easiest bet I ever made. When is Vegas going to learn how fucking dominant the Pats are?

Anways, during one of the many conversations that took place this weekend, my friend mentioned to me that he just wants to make $500 / month playing poker. Its definitely a modest and achievable goal for anyone who has passed 11th grade. However, I mentioned to him that even with a decent amount of poker knowledge, there are many other factors that will determine if you are a winning or losing player. The problem is, all the intangible factors that go into ones winrate are almost impossible to teach. Things like tilt control, discipline at the tables and so on are only really realized after you have done a lot of damage to your bankroll.

I mean, everyone knows not to tilt. Its like saying don't fall when trying to win a footrace. But the problem with tilt is, not every player is able to even identify when they are tilting, so avoiding it becomes difficult. And tilt isn't the only thing to avoid. Playing when tired, angry, sad, etc, these things will effect your game in ways that are very difficult to identify let alone quantify.

The best advice I can give to anyone struggling to put together a bankroll is to start analyzing your state of mind when playing. Be conscious of every move you are doing. Do not go on autopilot (until you are a confirmed winner at least). For every significant move you make, ask yourself, would I always do this play? Do I know better than to do this play?

At the low levels poker is an exceedingly easy game to beat. I could easily beat 50NL for a significantly high winrate by never bluffing. I'm not even joking either. I've done many long experimental sessions at lower limits trying out my "no bluffing" strategy and it always shows a good profit. What hurts most lowstakes would-be grinders is not the strategy - thats easy - its the discipline. Its the discipline not to check-raise all in on a draw just because your opponent is "always betting". Its the discipline to just fold to the fish who keeps min raising you. Its the discipline not to instantly try to win your money back after getting sucked out on.

Winning poker is folding poker. I know, it sucks folding. Its not fun and you can't win if you fold. Trust me, I know what its like not to want to fold. But the truth of the matter is, no matter what game your are playing in, poker is still at best 50% skill and 50% luck. And against most decent opponents, your edge is not that significant. Your main winnings will come from fish with terrible stats. Just wait for a hand, bet and they will call you. You know why? Because fish hate folding even more than you do. It only takes a few terribly played, tilt induced hands by you to ruin your winrate and send your bankroll back to zero.

Sometimes you just won't be getting the cards, and sometimes the fish will keep getting better ones. Thats called variance. Do not in any circumstance justify your play because of the lack of cards you are getting (or the glut of cards your opponents are getting). Keep in mind that there will be days that you will have the nuts every hand and they will pay you off. Your edge comes in when you can fold to their nut hands.

$500/month is possible and a very nice bonus for most non poker players working 9-5 jobs. With most people's current poker knowledge it is almost trivial assuming tilt and discipline are not issues. However, 90% of poker players are long time losers for a reason, and that reason is basically lack of experience with dealing with tilt. Don't ignore it, just learn to recognize it and you will win.