Thursday, November 30, 2006

Playing a micro stack on the bubble

Here's a tip that probably doesn't seem to significant to the average player but it definitely adds up in the long run.

You are playing a SNG and you are on the bubble as a very short stack (3bb or less). Whats the best way to maximize your EV here?

Lets whip up a fake example to illustrate.

UTG (2750 in chips)
RikkiDee (980 in chips)
SB (2490 in chips)
BB (7280 in chips)
SB: posts small blind 200
BB: posts big blind 400

Here we are on the button with just over 2bb. We are playing for 3rd here and if we get it we will have boners. Now in this type of situation you have to keep in mind that pretty much all options suck, so you have to end up picking the least suck.

Now a lot of players in our position will see our chip stack, figure we have no chance and push any 2 reasonable cards, maybe even something trashy like T3o just because. But since we are so short, the BB and maybe even the SB are compelled to call our potential all in with a ridiculously huge range, probably any 2 cards. They are also calling a huge range because they are eager to end the bubble and have the chips to spare to do so.

Now, because of this, I generally like folding here on the button unless we pick up a top 20%~ hand. In this situation, the only real acceptable outcome is to go all in against 1 opponent. If you push from the button or UTG, you will generally get more than one call, and they will just check the hand down, maximizing your chance to go busto.

Again, a lot of players here will either push the button or if they are dealt a supreme pile of shit of a hand, they'll wait for UTG to push. They always push before they get to the BB.

And therein lies the trick of the situation.

Because players are so eager to call your 2-3bb raise, pushing here is big time -EV. Going against 2 opponents is basically a disaster here unless you have a very good hand. And even if you manage to push UTG and get heads up vs 1 caller and win, you still face the BB the very next hand anyways. What you need to do is fold the button and UTG and let your BB hit you. At this point you are completely pot committed and everyone knows it. You then call a raise all in and usually you end up heads up rather than against 2 opponents. If you win, you now have a chance and you have 3 hands until your next BB.

There are 2 other hidden advantages to this that do add up over time:

1. Often times if the UTG and Button fold when you are in the BB, the SB will fold as well, realizing that you are pot committed to call any raise. If they are sitting there with a real piece of trash, a lot of opponents will just fold, which is hugely +EV for you. Additionally, you will sometimes see a big stack fold to you from the SB if he wants to preserve the bubble for his own good. You may think this is insignificant but you'd be shocked how often it occurs.

2. Opponent bustout equity. In the times you folded your button and UTG, people may bust out. This is also not completely unreasonable as many aggressive opponents will try to push around the table when they see you as a short stack, hoping that no one wants to bust before you. All you need then is one angry fish or good hand to spite call and bam, 3rd place is yours.

To reiterate, this tip isn't going to make you thousands. It's merely a way to maximize your EV in a fairly common situation that most players just give up on. Most of the time what will end up happening is someone will raise and you call from the BB and lose. But at least you got heads up and gave yourself a chance to get back in with the extra bonus'.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Hold up, wait a minute

Ok sorry for that last whiny crybaby post. At the time I was in a dark asshole of a place.

It's amazing how much a night of playing Wii can cheer you up.

I decided to load up another round of SNGs once I was in a better mood. All signs pointed to me playing a standard, non tilty, +EV game. And the results, while not spectacular, were actually positive (+$204). So theres that.

But I was still very unsure about my game, and the state of the games in general. I needed a way to decipher why I was losing. And since I have a lot of spare time, I decided that I was going to tally up all my all in's from the last 3 days to see how I am doing in the luck department.

I manually went through the last 105 games, searching for every all-in confrontation that went to showdown. I divided them into categories based on probability of winning. I had 5 such categories: 80% favorite (pair over pair, pair vs undercards), 70% Favorite (dominating hands, pair vs 1 overcard), Coinflips (pair vs overcards, 2 unpaired undominated cards), 30% underdog (dominated hands, 1 overcard vs pair), 20% underdog (pair under pair, undercards vs pair)

I ended up getting pretty liberal in my definition for "coinflip". I would basically count any all in where two hands went against each other in which each card was live as a "coinflip". Therefore a confrontation like 8T vs AK ended up falling under the "coinflip" category, despite 8T being a 35%~ dog. While this seems like it would skew the results, what ended up happening is that the times that I was on the 35-45% side of the coinflip, offset with the times that I was on the 55-65% side. Obviously not a perfect system, but still a decent indication of true variance.

Results:
















Based solely on this data, no matter how good one is at poker, if one has the data of the losing session, one will lose many monies. And the fact here is, when I was losing my bankroll there, I was also losing a shit ton of coinflips. Not only that, each category is actually performing lower than what is expected. Since luck is neutral, in the long run those percentages will read 80%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 20%. It doesn't matter how good or bad I am, the expectation for these stats won't change.

So thats a fairly good sign that I'm not completely inept. I think I mostly was freaking out because usually when losing a lot, I am running into big pairs preflop. But as the stats show, I only ran into a 20% underdog situation 6 times.

It also makes sense that a winning session will have similar stats to the ones that were tracked here. I was winning slightly more than my share of coinflips, but also losing in all the other categories. So basically, everything in the luck department was fair and balanced. With luck balanced I can then go to work and play my game, scraping off chunks of EV where I can.

A flaw in this method of tracking luck is basically weighing the impact of different situations. For example, in this basic method, I would track each all in and give it the same weight in the final results. A hand where I called someones 3bb all in with A5 and lost to their KT counted the same as the times where I 3 bet pushed QQ on the bubble and lost to the chip leaders AK. I mean, clearly some all ins are more important than others. But just as in the "coinflips" tally method, I figure that these situations counteract each other in the long run as well.

I'll probably never do this method of tracking again since it took a good 3 hours to load up all the games and find the all-ins. But I think it was needed. I needed some evidence to assure me that my losses were still due to variance, as at times it sure didn't feel like it.

And heres a hand that sums it all up nicely.

Dealt to RikkiDee [8c Qs]
RaiNKhAN: folds
mickael23: folds
Fat Jaffa: folds
afiopeneyes2: folds
RikkiDee: raises 390 to 490 and is all-in
sbeanz33: calls 490
GetItQuietly: folds
trevboy: raises 3035 to 3525 and is all-in
sbeanz33: calls 1625 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [6d 9d 8d]
*** TURN *** [6d 9d 8d] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [6d 9d 8d 7s] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
trevboy: shows [Ah Ad] (a pair of Aces)
sbeanz33: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces)
RikkiDee: shows [8c Qs] (a pair of Eights)

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

It was all a dream

This might be my last post on this old blog. I made it a year, which all things considered, is above my expectations.

I bought a car, big screen tv, paid off a ton of student loan debt, and 50,000 other things I didn't need. But it looks like its time to pack it all in.

I think my losses this month are a culmination of what I've feared for a long time:

I'm simply not good enough at poker to beat it.

And whether or not this is actually true in the fictitious vacuum of poker world, is irrelevant, since the only thing that matters is that I think I'm a breakeven player, and therefore I will be.

I'm too diluted to fix my game. I have too much information about SNGs and I can't decipher which is the actual right play and which is fabricated bullshit.

The players at Party Poker have come in and ruined Poker Stars. Completely decimated it. But in reality, all they did was act as a catalyst to the inevitable crash of the poker boom. Like in any efficient market, the truly good will survive and the losers will bow out. Once the truly awful players are busto, the former marginal winners become the new losers, and the market corrects itself. This was going to happen whether or not that awesome bill came into place, it just would have taken more time. All that is happening right now is that the fish are losing their money at an exponential rate now that there are a disproportionate amount of sharks. They've probably all gone busto and/or afraid of the internet gambling bill, while the marginal half fish/half shark mutants now are clinging to any piece of profit they can get.

I'm simply a dying breed.

And while it is probably -EV to even admit that, I think for my own good I need to. I knew I was never that great of a player. I knew that I didn't have the aggression that it takes to beat the game. But I continued to have success month after month, so I started believing in my own hype. And now I need to cut the cord before any real damage is done.

I'll continue to play, since even 3% ROI can be a nice little bonus to my life, I can't live off it. And right now, the stress is killing me.

This month I've made a grand total of $1200. The best part is that I've played more this month than any other month and have now made less than any month I've ever played. Even looking back to last December, where I played only 146 games, I still managed to make more than $1200. And since now I've grown accustomed to $6k+ months, its really fucking hard to go back.

Worst post ever, I know. I can't help it. I feel like such a piece of shit right now. I had such high hopes for this poker thing and now its all crashing down in my face.

Oh well, at least I got my Wii.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

This is getting Wii-tarded

Haven't posted in a while, mostly due to the fact that for the last week or so, all waking hours have been consumed by failed attempts at obtaining a Nintendo Wii.

I feel like I'm 12 years old again.

I actually waited in line, on a Sunday, at 7am, behind 50 other losers, for 2.5 hours, for an ultimately failed attempt. 50 people - 42 units = 8 people who suck as much as I do.

The rest of the week was spent reloading Ebay auctions and calling every Future Shop/Best Buy/Walmart/Toys R Us/EB Games/7-11 in southwestern Ontario. All to save maybe $50.

Tragic really.

Now, one could say that this time is better spent playing poker, making money and paying a premium just to get one off Ebay. But my friend, that would be under the assumption that I can actually still make a profit playing poker, which, these days, is a bold assumption.

In October I cried at the end of the month when I tallied up my results to find an average ROI of 8%. This month, having played almost twice as many games as I've ever played in a month, my ROI is at a paltry 4%.

I've really lost a lot of confidence playing. I even realize it while playing but I can't change. I really need some sort of poker enema. I think what it will come down to is a disciplined review of my games, followed by a ton of SNGPT scenarios and then wrap it up with a prolonged hot streak. Then I think I'll get back to my "normal" (which is probably something like 7% ROI) game.

Here are 2 hands from todays session that I thought were particularly awesome.

PokerStars Game #7144122367: Tournament #36514102, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/23 - 15:51:39 (ET)
Table '36514102 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: RikkiDee (4995 in chips)
Seat 3: H3poker (2925 in chips)
Seat 6: Muraca (1955 in chips)
Seat 8: gizmo387 (3625 in chips)
RikkiDee: posts small blind 100
H3poker: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [4d 6s]
Muraca: folds
gizmo387: folds
RikkiDee: raises 400 to 600
H3poker: raises 600 to 1200
RikkiDee: raises 3795 to 4995 and is all-in
H3poker: folds
RikkiDee collected 2400 from pot
RikkiDee: doesn't show hand

SIT DOWN MOTHA FUCKA!!

Needless to say I "had a read".

Next:

PokerStars Game #7144529488: Tournament #36517352, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/11/23 - 16:30:29 (ET)
Table '36517352 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: initial (1270 in chips)
Seat 2: cabriole (1560 in chips)
Seat 3: donniesmith (2890 in chips)
Seat 5: RikkiDee (1870 in chips)
Seat 6: jajejijoju (1520 in chips)
Seat 7: topgun09 (1400 in chips)
Seat 8: H-Man81 (1020 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLegend222 (1970 in chips)
initial: posts small blind 15
cabriole: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Qh Qd]
donniesmith: folds
RikkiDee: raises 90 to 120
jajejijoju: folds
topgun09: raises 180 to 300
H-Man81: folds
TheLegend222: raises 1670 to 1970 and is all-in
initial: calls 1255 and is all-in
cabriole: folds
RikkiDee: folds
topgun09: calls 1100 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [4d 7s 4c]
*** TURN *** [4d 7s 4c] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [4d 7s 4c 7d] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
topgun09: shows [As Ah] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
TheLegend222: shows [Js Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
topgun09 collected 260 from side pot
initial: shows [Ks Kc] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
topgun09 collected 3960 from main pot

For what its worth I think I was going to fold to the first all in, but once "initial" called that all in I knew my QQ was basically 23o. Pretty cool that JJ-AA were all here - don't think I've ever seen that before.

Heres to tomorrow, where I have 3 hot leads on Wii deliveries.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Delayed continuation bets

Alright, I'll try a strategy post. Beware.

This situation applies pretty much only in tournaments, and basically only when you have between 15-30 BBs. You raise with a legitimate raising hand, but not a powerhouse, something like AQ or 99 and you get a caller, preferably from the blinds. It's not as applicable if you get a caller from behind, leaving you out of position.

Now, the flop comes with three cards, none of which particularly help you. The "standard" play here if they check to you is to make a continuation bet, one between 1/2 and 3/4ths pot size, hoping your opponent didn't connect and you can take the pot down. This is thoroughly discussed in Harrington on Hold'Em and I think pretty much every poker player knows what it is.

Now because betting when checked to here is so standard, it's almost become standard for your opponent to call any bet on the flop with anything, or perhaps even raise. They will call with any pocket pair, any ace, any draw. Basically they will only fold hands that you are beating badly right now. So why bet?

Now, flop texture here is very important. If you have 99 and the flop is 852 rainbow, I'd make a bet for value, seeing that you aren't going to fold out A5 or 33 anyways. Similarly if you have AQ and the flop is QT6, you should probably bet. But with anything else, try taking a free card.

You see, the flop has become the "practice" round. Any bet on the flop gets little to no respect. Your opponents are basically saying, "yea bet and I call, lets see what you really got on the turn". When you check, some opponents are thrown off. Now there is only 1 more card to come and they are running out of time to define their hands.

By checking the flop, you give yourself a free card, control the pot size, and an additional shot to take down the pot on the turn if they check to you again (usually a big sign of weakness). And if you want to get really tricky, if they bet out on the turn, you can reraise them, representing a huge hand. Don't overuse that though, as most fish don't understand what you are trying to represent.

Another advantage of waiting untill the turn to bet is that players with draws will be less likely to make a move at the pot with only 1 card to come. I know personally that if I have a flush draw on the flop, and plan to check raise the preflop raiser all in, when they don't bet I'm a little unsure of what to do. Check raising a draw on the flop is pretty standard, but check raising the turn is not. If you throw out a pot sized bet on the turn when they've checked to you twice, they may fold their draw that they would have called/raised on the flop.

Some skeptical people may read this and think, "yo dumbass, if you check the flop, your opponent will see that as an invitation to steal the pot LOLZ!". And to a certain extent, you are right, opponents will be more likely to bet the turn once you check the flop. But keep in mind, if all you are holding is a whiffed AQ or a 99 with 2 overcards out there, your hand has a decent chance of being beaten anyways. And you could always, you know, play poker and call their turn bet if you think they are trying to steal. Don't give your opponents too much credit.

Another key aspect with all this is stack sizes and pot control. In a cash game, a continuation bet only represents a small percentage of your stack, so even if they call, you aren't going to be pot committed. But when you have 15-20BB and the pot is 6-7BB, its a whole different game. A c-bet sometimes will even pot commit you, something you definitely don't want to do in a tournament with a marginal hand. By checking the flop, you've taken away one round of betting, which means less chips in the pot. It goes back to the old poker adage, play big pots with big hands, small pots with small ones. And in a SNG espeically, your stack is all you have. You need to preserve every last bit of fold equity for the late rounds. Don't go throwing it away on mindless continuation bets.

Basically what I'm getting at is that if you do a regular continuation bet and get called, you have zero information other than they don't have absolutely nothing. So if you are betting with a weak/marginal hand and getting no information from said bet, then there may not be much of a point in doing it.

Thoughts?

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

A typical day...

















Insta +$1k, insta -$1k. Standard.

As soon as I started hot I knew that it wouldn't be sustained. I knew that losses would come eventually, so I thought, why even keep playing?

Obviously I've dealt with these thoughts before and I still haven't come to a clear conclusion. Usually I end the session if I'm in a particularly tilty mood and a loss would send me off the deep end. If I'm in a more docile mood, I'll stick around and donk off the remainder of my profits.

But yesterday, I took a more rational approach. I realized that the losses are going to come, and by not playing and booking a win, I'm just delaying the inevitable. I thought to myself, why not play now, get some shitty variance out of the way, even out that ROI and continue playing?

The point is, I'm going to lose eventually. It's a fact. I've learned that it is a fact through countless sessions. It may not happen in the same day, week or even month. But it all evens out. And the sooner you accept that and just keep playing, the more real dollars you are going to make in the long run.

All of this assumes that you are playing your standard non-tilt game, which can be a fairly heroic assumption especially when you are dealing with $1k swings within hours. But if you know you are in the right mindset to play, just grind it out.

Shit happens, poker sucks. Etc, etc..

In other news I replaced my "old" TV with a 50" Samsung DLP 1080p. Here is a pic of the old 42" LCD followed by the new Samsung.



























Much better.

I opted for the DLP over the LCD as you simply get way more for your $. As far as I can tell, the only advantage of an LCD/Plasma is that it can hang on a wall. Everything else the advantage goes to DLP (size, price, picture quality). I mean this thing is effing gorgeous. I'm getting a semi just looking at that picture.

And since I'm posting pictures today, here is a pic of my "office".














Yes this beautiful area is where I play and post from every day. I need a new fuckin' desk.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Sand, Meet Vagina

I'm at a real low point right now.

I'd like to say its just in poker, but because poker basically dictates my emotions, I've become down on life. Probably not the best way to start a post, but hey, I'm in a shitty mood.

The games have either gotten ridiculously better or I'm going through a disgusting breakeven patch. I'd like to think its a bit of both, but honestly, it doesn't feel like I'm playing bad, nor getting unlucky. With all the new players coming over from Party, its difficult at first to distinguish who the good players are. Even sharkscope can't help out as their sample sizes are too small to determine any real results.

I can't decide if I should try to change my game at all. I mean, on one hand, for over a year now I've been profitable. Why should I change anything? On the other hand, the game dynamics may have changed and it may take some innovation to beat them. I really don't know. And what sucks is that it would take months of results to determine if said changes are helping me or not. I can't wait that long.

I'm having a crisis of faith. Its been exactly 1 year since I went "pro". A year ago I didn't know how long I'd last, but always assumed in the back of my mind that I would give it up eventually for a "real" job. But as the months went by, and my income steadily rose the prospects of employment became increasingly improbable. And it was all good until mid October, when I started this horrid stretch, and now I'm torn.

The good thing is, even if I did seek employment, I can always play in my spare time, probably as much as I play now anyways. And with backup income, I don't have to become so emotionally drained by variance. Probably a +EV move in a vacuum.

But the world I've lived in for the past year is far removed from society. I don't really like "people". Especially office people. I've gotten pretty damn comfortable in my own environment and I feel I may have trouble adjusting if released into the wild.

I don't know. I saw myself doing this poker thing for at least another year, possibly while attending school for something I actually want to do. But the recent unpleasantness has really gotten to me. Although when I step back and think about it, its probably just a case of sand in vagina'itis. Lets see how the rest of the month goes, get some real results and then make a more informed decision. Okay.

Here are some hands to hopefully entertain anyone who is still reading this doomsday shit.

PokerStars Game #6940396182: Tournament #35415726, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/11/08 - 09:03:18 (ET)
Table '35415726 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: L17D (1480 in chips)
Seat 2: jonrass (2750 in chips)
Seat 3: Gambler_DK (1255 in chips)
Seat 4: JustAplayer2 (2665 in chips)
Seat 5: RikkiDee (815 in chips)
Seat 6: Balotin (750 in chips)
Seat 7: exployer (2000 in chips)
Seat 9: AgroMonkey (1985 in chips)
JustAplayer2: posts small blind 75
RikkiDee: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [3h Kh]
Balotin: folds
exployer: calls 150
AgroMonkey: folds
L17D: folds
jonrass: folds
Gambler_DK: folds
JustAplayer2: calls 75
RikkiDee: checks
*** FLOP *** [2c 8h 7h]
JustAplayer2: checks
RikkiDee: bets 665 and is all-in
exployer: calls 665
JustAplayer2: folds
*** TURN *** [2c 8h 7h] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [2c 8h 7h 7s] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [3h Kh] (a pair of Sevens)
exployer: shows [9c Jd] (two pair, Nines and Sevens)
exployer collected 1780 from pot

PokerStars Game #6940379536: Tournament #35415519, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/08 - 08:59:59 (ET)
Table '35415519 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: kiki1931 (2690 in chips)
Seat 2: cofios (5010 in chips)
Seat 3: RikkiDee (1490 in chips)
Seat 4: HeyNow76 (1595 in chips)
Seat 6: sulosko (1305 in chips)
Seat 9: jlamb25 (1410 in chips)
cofios: posts small blind 100
RikkiDee: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Ac Qh]
HeyNow76: folds
sulosko: folds
jlamb25: folds
kiki1931: folds
cofios: calls 100
RikkiDee: raises 1290 to 1490 and is all-in
cofios: calls 1290
*** FLOP *** [6c 9c 8c]
*** TURN *** [6c 9c 8c] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [6c 9c 8c 4s] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
cofios: shows [3d 6d] (a pair of Sixes)
RikkiDee: shows [Ac Qh] (high card Ace)
cofios collected 2980 from pot

The Bean Man: raises 20 to 40
amilehigh420: folds
GotchAgain: folds
RikkiDee: folds
calisdecriss: calls 40
whytee: folds
JordanRR: folds
schmates: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [Qh 5h As]
schmates: checks
The Bean Man: checks
calisdecriss: bets 60
schmates: folds
The Bean Man: raises 60 to 120
calisdecriss: raises 120 to 240
The Bean Man: raises 120 to 360
calisdecriss: raises 120 to 480
The Bean Man: raises 120 to 600
calisdecriss: raises 120 to 720
The Bean Man: calls 60 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Qh 5h As] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [Qh 5h As 7d] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Bean Man: shows [Ad Ah] (three of a kind, Aces)
calisdecriss: shows [5s 5d] (three of a kind, Fives)

PokerStars Game #6952640447: Tournament #35484328, $105+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/11/09 - 07:23:14 (ET)
Table '35484328 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: bigbigclient (3965 in chips)
Seat 2: pebah (1950 in chips)
Seat 3: Hotey (1330 in chips)
Seat 5: owlking (3755 in chips)
Seat 6: el unico (1170 in chips)
Seat 8: RikkiDee (1330 in chips)
el unico: posts small blind 75
RikkiDee: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Kd Ks]
bigbigclient: folds
pebah: folds
Hotey: folds
owlking: calls 150
el unico: folds
RikkiDee: checks
*** FLOP *** [6s Qc Tc]
RikkiDee: bets 300
owlking: calls 300
*** TURN *** [6s Qc Tc] [Jc]
RikkiDee: bets 880 and is all-in
owlking: calls 880
*** RIVER *** [6s Qc Tc Jc] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikkiDee: shows [Kd Ks] (a pair of Kings)
owlking: shows [Ah 6c] (a flush, Queen high)
owlking collected 2735 from pot

Table '35548350 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: floppingnuts (1435 in chips)
Seat 2: beanmo (1445 in chips)
Seat 3: Sleestack666 (1530 in chips)
Seat 4: ElkY (1530 in chips)
Seat 5: gloierm (1575 in chips)
Seat 6: RikkiDee (1705 in chips)
Seat 7: BigBadBailor (1215 in chips)
Seat 8: 1SpeedRacer1 (1610 in chips)
Seat 9: shibbs93 (1455 in chips)
shibbs93: posts small blind 25
floppingnuts: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RikkiDee [Js Ac]
beanmo: folds
Sleestack666: folds
ElkY: folds
gloierm: folds
RikkiDee: raises 100 to 150
BigBadBailor: calls 150
1SpeedRacer1: calls 150
shibbs93: calls 125
floppingnuts: folds
*** FLOP *** [As Kc 8s]
shibbs93: bets 300
RikkiDee: calls 300
BigBadBailor: folds
1SpeedRacer1: folds
*** TURN *** [As Kc 8s] [6d]
shibbs93: bets 400
RikkiDee: raises 855 to 1255 and is all-in
shibbs93: calls 605 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [As Kc 8s 6d] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
shibbs93: shows [6h 6s] (three of a kind, Sixes)
RikkiDee: shows [Js Ac] (a pair of Aces)
shibbs93 collected 3260 from pot

Monday, November 06, 2006

I got money in da bank, shawty what you drank?

I think I'm too easily discouraged sometimes. Either that or I just expect too much of myself. I don't know why though, since I've consistently underachieved pretty much my whole adult life.

I've been doing a lot of "results" studying lately. While I can't be upset that I've been consistently winning every month for an entire year, a part of me still tells me I suck ass and need to play more/do better/win more. When I started playing, I wanted to not only make enough money to survive and prosper, but I also wanted to increase my bankroll each month, as well as have an increasing monthly income. Now, if averaged out, since last November, my monthly income has technically increased, its no where near where I probably should be if I played properly. There really is no need to be lazy. Sure I can live and be satisfied making 5-6k/month, and probably should be grateful that I can even do it in the first place, especially when compared to the horrific alternatives for employment. But when I look at those numbers, and realize that with an extra 2-3 hours a day of "work", and double my income, it makes me a little sick that I don't.

Sure, 60-70k/year is pretty damn good for doing nothing. And yes, what I do is nothing, don't be confused. I play about 3-4 hours a day and then sleep for 14 hours. It is a fulfilling, multifaceted lifestyle I can assure you. But honestly, how long can this go on for?

Since the "ban" of online poker, and the subsequent shutdown of Party Poker, the games on Poker Stars have gotten a shit ton tougher, mostly due to the illegal immigration of refugee Party players. As I posted earlier, I had my worst month in October, achieving an overall ROI of 8%.

I spent an hour or so the other day Sharkscoping every regular player I could think of. It's extremely convenient that a program/website like Sharkscope exists, as I can gauge and compare my winrate with that of my opponents. As compared to cash games, where no real database exists. Knowing where you stand compared to everyone else allows you to truly know how good you are in an absolute sense. By knowing how you rank, it allows you to get a good sense of how much improvement is possible, and how far you've gotten. At least that's the way I see it.

Anyways, after scoping out the competition, I only found a few (3 or 4 out of about 100) instances of players playing the $60/114 games with an ROI over 5% over any significant sample size after the fall of Party. The 2+2 forums are littered with posts about players not being able to achieve the ROI they have gotten used to as well, and this evidence just supports it. While I'm glad to see that everyone - even great players - are experiencing lower income streams, it still sucks balls for me.

And really, isn't "me" all that matters?

So, assuming things stay relatively the same for at least a few months, I can continue to expect about an 8% ROI. Which basically means if I want to significantly increase my average monthly income, I'm really going to have to put in some serious hours. And because I just don't see these games being a goldmine for any sort of long term time frame, I really need to rape them dry and just try to save up as much from it that I can.

This goal sort of conflicts with my other goal of spending as much money as possible without destroying my bankroll. It sucks but if I have excess money I tend to spend it fairly quickly without considering the smart alternatives. But hey, buying shit is fun and I'm still young right?


Fuck being responsible.

With that in mind, I'm pretty set on buying a next gen console. I've been pretty excited about getting one since I haven't had a console since my beloved N64. For a year now I held off getting a Xbox360 for a PS3. Now, since PS3s are apparently going to be sold out for like 4 years, I've been looking around at alternatives. The Nintendo Wii has really started to appeal to me. I've always been a pretty big Nintendo fan boi, but lost interest with the Gamecube and their age 12 and under target market. Now while the Wii still has a ton of cutesy 12 year old girl titles, they have a bunch of guaranteed kickass titles, and not to mention the controller. I really need to try one out before I buy it because Nintendo has a pretty shaky history with gimmicky type peripherals and consoles (anyone remember Virtual Boy?). But the demo videos on the net are pretty boner inducing. If nothing else, the Wii will own the home multiplayer game market with games like Mario Party and Super Smash Brothers. And since I can play most of the PS3 games on my desktop anyways, I figure a Wii may not be a total waste of money.

Plus, you can actually fucking buy one!

So hopefully that controller isn't gay and stops responding within the first month. If it doesn't, the Wii might really revolutionize things in the gaming world. So heres to my next money sink!